Internet Graffiti - Is Google Really in a Tailspin?

[greeneagle]

Internet Graffiti - Is Google Really in a Tailspin?

Chicago Sun Times:

“Barron's cast the latest pall on Google with an article outlining several risks that threaten to squeeze the company's profit margins and cut its market value in half.

The gloomy scenario further dampened investors' enthusiasm for Google, whose market value has plunged by 27 percent during the past month to wipe out nearly $40 billion in shareholder wealth. Google's shares fell $16.91, or 4.7 percent, to close at $345.70 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The shares peaked at $475.11 on Jan. 11.”

Barrons Online:

“In the Drink"
By JACQUELINE DOHERTY

INVESTORS HAVE BEEN FIXATED on Google the past few weeks, as its shares have tumbled nearly 25% from a peak of $475 -- and the fact is, there could be a lot more tumbling ahead. The share price could well be cut in half over the next year as the Internet giant grapples with growing competition from Microsoft and Yahoo!, increased pricing pressures in its online ad sales and mounting concern about what's known as click fraud.

In my opinion:
Google’s “Adwords” and “Adsense” are great programs, working together synergistically to present most of their revenue, but their algorithms just aren’t beefy enough to detect and kill revenue generated by Faux Adsense Directories of all kinds yet. Most of these Adsense garbage sites are nonsense, with little or no content, just thousands of pages of auto-generated redundant materials such as articles, if any content at all, with multiple incursions of Adsense splayed all over the page and in the middle of content. Some of the auto-content services are extremely sophisticated, plucking top content and highly rated links (OBLs) only.

It’s become obscene!, at best.

Is that Web Spam?....Of course it is, it’s the latest brand.

Web Spammers have done it again… Abusing useful services provided by the leading Internet Search Engine.

It’s pretty obvious that in this moment of vulnerability that the competition will come in with plans exhibiting reduced costs, limited keyword banks and whatever else it takes to garnish a significant share of the market. What other approach is there?

Google may also have to modify or mature it’s Adsense program to allow other similar systems such as AdCenter on the same page. It’s kind of surprising that the finger hasn’t been pointed at “monopolistic” practices there yet.

Google is looking at having to mature their algorithms, their Adsense program and their stance toward competition to keep advertisers in their Adwords Machine.

“Internet Graffiti” is on the wall.

Advertisers don’t like finding their listings in those Faux Directories either, by any extent of anyone’s imagination.

The Sun Times again:

“Now, Google is increasingly being viewed as a company vulnerable to stiffer competition as well as its heavy reliance on advertising revenue growth that could taper off as companies become more sophisticated about online marketing.
Barron's critical piece, which warned Google's shares might drop to as low as $188, provided a textbook example of how the pendulum has swung against the company.”

Flipping the coin:

Google is an extremely intelligent well run company. They undeniably know “the Internet revenue game” better than anyone else. Not to mention the fact that management has already extracted $3.7 Billion in Stock Sales, but we will anyway:

The “Sun Times” again:

“Like Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Schmidt has pocketed huge windfalls since the company's IPO. Combined, the three executives have sold about $3.7 billion in stock.”

Having said that though..The primary motivator now, is simply to be the best.

Recently, we saw the “Jagger” update flounder like a fish out of water for 6 weeks. Then we saw them come back with a new beefier “Big Daddy” “infrastructure” update.

We have also uncovered and discussed what may be in the “offing” with reconstruction plans ramping up “TrustRank” as opposed to “PageRank”. All indications are… They are scrambling as we post and read these articles. The whole world is watching!

Business as usual?:

"The company isn't run for the long-term value of our shareholders but for the long-term value of our end users,"CEO Eric Schmidt said during an interview published in this week's Time magazine."

This Time Magazine Article is a must read… Let me quote just a bit of the interview there:

“WHAT ARE YOU GUYS MAKING?

BRIN: I was hoping to build a Lego nuclear reactor, but I think I have a bazooka-wielding robot.

PAGE: Hey, I know. Let's build Eric out of Legos.
GOOGLE HAS COME A LONG WAY. HOW DOES IT FEEL TO BE HOST OF A MEETING WITH THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES?

BRIN: I have to admit I never anticipated this. Especially in a place as big as the Moscone Center. It's a bit disturbing.

YOU TALK ABOUT THE NEED FOR TRANSPARENCY IN THE BUSINESS. WHAT PROBLEM ARE YOU ADDRESSING?

SCHMIDT: With all the headlines we're making, we don't want our announcements to surprise or confuse anyone. We don't want our partners to think we're competing against them.

BRIN [holding up some clear plastic pieces]: Look, I'm only using transparent Legos.

GOOGLE HAS DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN THE PAST YEAR. ARE YOU DOING TWICE AS MUCH STUFF?

PAGE: Well, we're doing a lot more.

"A LOT"? THAT'S IT? I THOUGHT YOU GUYS HAD PRECISE METRICS FOR EVERYTHING.

PAGE: Yeah, well, sometimes that's hard to do.

IS THIS JOB STILL FUN?

BRIN: We've lost the sense of intimacy. Once you go from 10 people to 100, you already don't know who everyone is. So at that stage you might as well keep growing, to get the advantages of scale.

IS THERE A GRAND STRATEGY FOR GOOGLE? IT SEEMS AS IF YOU'RE DIVING INTO ALMOST EVERYTHING.

SCHMIDT: We try very hard to look like we're out of control. But in fact the company is very measured. And that's part of our secret.

PAGE: We don't generally talk about our strategy ... because it's strategic. I would rather have people think we're confused than let our competitors know what we're going to do. That's an easy trade-off.”

Everyone really interested in what makes GOOGLE tick, needs to read this article!

What are they doing – Can you tell?

What are they going to do?

Staff and infrastructure are being beefed up as fast as they can. I would expect a monumental update some time this year… They have to, it’s already late on arrival. It's a "Do or Die" scenario, already.

Stop in your tracks, drop your toys...the "death ray" guns are coming out, smack your plans for new Adsense trash, there is a whole new fleet of garbage trucks coming... The "War of the Worlds" is on!

This is going to be the hardest "smack up beside the head" we have ever witnessed for Web Spammers...and there are going to be great crowds on the sidelines, cheering it on!

Ken

[Mel]

Despite all the rhetoric, fancy words and "discoveries" (that may or may not be real) Google is still alive and well and the reports of its demise have been greatly exaggerated.

How I long for measured and thoughtful posts instead of hype which seems to have no other purpose but to take up time and space.

[Papadoc]

There is definitely room for improvement in Google's model, but I hardly think they are in any kind of tailspin. This is the time that the bears come out and give their horror predictions, and yet despite what the stock does, Google's exactly the same company they were a month ago.

Regarding claims of monopoly and whether G should or will lighten up on the AdSense exclusivity thing, it may come about, but not because of any legal threat. It's an at will contract, take it or leave it and if you don't like the terms, nobody forces the publisher to have AdSense either. Mobil gas stations don't sell Shell gas out of the same gas station, McD franchises don't also sell Whoppers, and about a billion other exclusive contracts are examples. Google is actually far less restrictive than most by limiting it to the page, not the site.

That said, if MSN and Yahoo both decide they are going to allow concurrent publishing on the same page, Google may have to relent in order to keep clients. Those are the only two big players that could dent the AdSense network. Folks like Ah-Ha and other penny per clicks are just no threat to AdSense. But since MSN isn't out and Yahoo is probably still picking up sites as fast as they can, it isn't an issue... yet.

Now I do agree that they have a problem with these out of control spammer sites. I've reported a couple of them, but by and large Google's algos pretty much stop them from being much of a threat anyway as I've seen most of them penalized. That might not however, apply to other SE opinions of them in the SERPS. What it might require is an approval process by Google of any site that the ads appear on, which is something that I wish they'd had all along. I don't blame G for not doing so as nobody had any real idea that such a thing would develop, but I do think they should get it going now.

[incrediblehelp]

Here we go again with stock price fluctuations, investor advice and rhetoric being mixed with Google SERPs and algorithm changes.

Believe me they do not mix.