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Thread: Nokia and Sony - have something in common

  1. #1
    WebProWorld MVP kgun's Avatar
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    Question Nokia and Sony - have something in common

    If you look at the share price of Nokia

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...&show=&time=13

    and

    Sony

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...&show=&time=13

    they have both fallen dramatically since Apple launched their iPhone in 2007 / 2008.

    Both companies have big problems

    Nokia Sales Slump Puts Pressure on Elop to Consider Split

    Nokia has joined forces with Microsoft to make a better Os for their mobile phones. Their smart phones have been clumsy compared to Apples iPhone. One exception may be Cnn go for Nokia.

    Sony have got a new CEO that take drastic steps to restructure the company.

    We cannot avoid facing painful decisions, but if we are scared of pains we cannot change Sony
    Source: Sony Cuts 10,000 Jobs, Hirai Attempts Turnaround

    Sony loose on Tv and will foccus on digital imaging, gaming and mobile in the future? My son predicts that Sony will soon produce a smart phone.

    So how do you think the future looks like for Nokia and Sony?

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    WebProWorld MVP Clicken's Avatar
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    What a coincidence Kgun, today I was looking at Nokia's share price, fundemantals, and news ... I thought, "I would like to take a break in my favorite breakroom", but my garden needed attention. Then just before retiring for the night, someone asked for help with a webpage, so I came here to look up a thread for reference when I saw this thread on the index. Great timing, your post offered more info on a subject which was on my mind, thanks!

    So how do you think the future looks like for Nokia and Sony?
    I haven't looked at Sony but the future looks very challenging for Nokia.

    Nokia's CEO comes from Microsoft so that connection should be an advantage as far as the endeavor for a better Os. Even so, they face very strong competition at a time that they have slipped.

    Hmm, It seems possible that with really good management, a lot of hard work and a bit of luck, they should be able to get back into a competitive stride.

  3. #3
    WebProWorld MVP kgun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clicken View Post
    I haven't looked at Sony but the future looks very challenging for Nokia.
    I hope that Sony survives, since I love my videocamera. The comment I heard on Cnn was not very positive. Are the company restructuring before bankruptcy? I talked to my son on my Nokia moblile phone about Sony and Nokia. He thinks Sony will survive, because they are into so many niches. He also knows the game market fairly well and think the next Playstation may be great. He expects a Sony mobile phone. That phone should at leas have a good camera. As a Scandinavian owning a cheap, but very good Nokia mobile phone, I definitely hope that the new Microsoft CEO is able to turn the company round. Nokia is more vulnerable, since the company depend so much on one product. It is bad for the Finish economy if Nokia don't make it. Once Nokia was the biggest company in Europe estimated by market value. Why does the company not join forces with Opera too? Opera has IMO had one of the best non native mobile browsers for years. In addition Linux is made by a man for Finland. The first SMS was sent by two persons from Finland. But the tech market is turbulent and difficult to predict.

    The same day I started this thread, Google announced their new C share class. Before the split, Google have A shares with one vote and B shares with 10 votes for the owners and the CEO. Now they will split the shares into a new C class that has no vote to increase the owners contorl of the company. It is not yet certain whether that share will be on par with the oridinary GOOG share or have another value or ticker.

    The reaction in the financial industry is mixed. Here

    http://blogs.siliconvalley.com/gmsv/...eating-it-too/

    is one hit if you search for

    google share split a b c class

    Some commentators say that Google and FaceBook are rewriting corporate finance. FaceBook recently bought Instagram for 1Bn USD in cash and shares.

    One hit

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/techno...e1-840847.aspx

    is you search for

    facebook instagram

    If Google and FaceBook is rewriting corporate finance, the interent is restructuring the tech industry. Social media seem to increase in importance. It is about data, data, data. FaceBook and Google wan't to know which flowers you plant in your garden, so they can seemlessly fit their Ads to that knowledge.

    And after social comes mobile.

    Google has neither reached the late 2007 top:http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...&show=&time=13

    Is this

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/adv...=false&state=9

    big bearish candlestic a reaction to Googles share split?
    Last edited by kgun; 04-15-2012 at 07:19 AM.

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    WebProWorld MVP kgun's Avatar
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    Sony is of course in the mobile market http://www.sonymobile.com/ since they bought up Ericsson.

    Sony Mobile Communications AB (formerly Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB) is a multinational mobile phone manufacturing company headquartered in London, United Kingdom and a wholly owned subsidiary of Sony Corporation. It was founded on October 1, 2001 as a joint venture between Sony and the Swedish telecommunications company Ericsson.[1] Sony acquired Ericsson's share in the venture on February 16, 2012.[4]

    Sony Mobile Communications has research and development facilities in Lund, Sweden; Tokyo, Japan; Beijing, China; and Silicon Valley, United States.[5] In 2009, it was the fourth-largest mobile phone manufacturer in the world (after Nokia, Samsung and LG).[6] By 2010, its market share had fallen to sixth place.
    Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sony_Mobile_Communications
    Last edited by kgun; 04-15-2012 at 11:38 AM.

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    WebProWorld MVP Clicken's Avatar
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    Is this ... big bearish candlestic a reaction to Googles share split?
    It might appear that way, however note that the split announcement was made Thursday mornining at the same time that they reported 61% profit increase for first QTR.

    Thursday the share price enthusiasm peaked hence on Thursday it reversed. Relatively, the drop really wasn't that much.

    I tend to agree with Prechter, that the movement is due more to the phenomenon of the way the market moves in general rather than a particular news event. I have noticed that there can be contrary movement to news announcements and a share price will play out its trend regardless.

    BTW, I really appreciate the info you gave on Prechter and the Elliot Wave theory, it has been very helpful.
    Last edited by Clicken; 04-15-2012 at 02:31 PM. Reason: Forgot the quote

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    WebProWorld MVP kgun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clicken View Post
    It might appear that way, however note that the split announcement was made Thursday mornining at the same time that they reported 61% profit increase for first QTR.
    I think that that profit increase was less than expected. So that may be another reason for a shortime bearish reaction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Clicken View Post
    BTW, I really appreciate the info you gave on Prechter and the Elliot Wave theory, it has been very helpful.
    Interesting that you have found it useful. Do you complement EWI analysis with candlestick analysis? If there is convergence, that may ceteris baribus be a stronger signal. For example a gravestone doji and a finished EWI wave top at the same frequency should be a strong signal to sell..

    Fundamnetal and technical analysis combined should be best. Free increasing cash flow is a strong signal. Technical indicators can be early signals that something is wrong. There are many more profitable investments in bear than in bull market. The question is whether Sony and / or Nokia will revert to historic levels experienced in 2007 / 2008.
    Last edited by kgun; 04-15-2012 at 07:10 PM.

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    WebProWorld MVP Clicken's Avatar
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    I think that that profit increase was less than expected. So that may be another reason for a shortime bearish reaction.
    Especially during these difficult economic times, a 61% profit gain is nothing to be bearish about, even if the estimates were higher! I think the bearish attitude comes from fear of the uncertain times, and how portfolios are managed, not the company's performance.

    I don't think the split raises enough concern either because as long as the company is doing well then there will be those jumping on the wagon even if they don't have a say in how the wagon is running.

    Do you complement EWI analysis with candlestick analysis?
    Yes, but I still have to reference Chart School because there are so many patterns to learn. I use the MACD, RSI, ADX with several different charts to help establish where the price movement is in relation to the price history. The fundamentals help to establish why a price is trending a certain way.

    The question is whether Sony and / or Nokia will revert to historic levels experienced in 2007 / 2008.
    Sorry, my crystal ball is broken.

    I would expect Sony to rebound faster than Nokia, due to the various markets it caters to, and of course their quality products. However I really haven't studied either in depth to know if they have other problems. Nokia caught my eye as I was scanning through the different market sectors looking for opportunity. Based on the bit of info I have, I won't hold my breath in wait, for either. Short term would be my approach, if I were to ride these waves.

  8. #8
    WebProWorld MVP kgun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clicken View Post
    Especially during these difficult economic times, a 61% profit gain is nothing to be bearish about, even if the estimates were higher! I think the bearish attitude comes from fear of the uncertain times, and how portfolios are managed, not the company's performance.
    Look at the expected profit increase as the "fair value". Then the actual outcome was below "fair value" and as such a bearish signal.

    Quote Originally Posted by Clicken View Post
    Yes, but I still have to reference Chart School because there are so many patterns to learn. I use the MACD, RSI, ADX with several different charts to help establish where the price movement is in relation to the price history. The fundamentals help to establish why a price is trending a certain way.
    You don't need to learn every pattern. If you pick mushrooms in your garden or in the forest, what is most important? It is most important to know those toxic mushrooms that are deadly. That is, if you are long (I assume that you don't short or buy put options) you must know the strongest bearish signals like the different DOJIS and espeically the gravestone DOJI. In addition you shall know the crows sitting in the tree crying that your house is burning. Look at the Enron monthly chart on page 5 in this PDF document that I wrote in 2003 (and last edited in 2004):

    http://multifinanceit.com/Litteratur...detsmusikk.pdf (you should be able to translate that to English if you need to).

    What do you see?

    1. Two white soldiers, the last a "bearish bull" signal since the candlestick has a flat bottom. What (to expect) comes next?
    2. A DOJI at the top and two black crows. Then a lonely white soldier and three black crows.
    3. Then a weak bullish candlestick and now there are only crows left crying your house is burning, your house is burning, get out.
    4. What happens when the share price crosses 40? The volume starts to increase exponentially.
    5. And the rest is history.
    6. This lesson from structural finance should hang in front of every trader and every investor that puts all hers / his eggs in one basket. Some people had bought Enron shares for their pension. If you are a long term investor, I reccomend not having more than 5-7% of your shares in a big company, and not more than 3% of your shares in small companies.

    One of the most important things as a trader is money management, measuering your risk reward and being able to take losses. Since decreases is as a general rule faster than increases, losses will ceteris paribus be bigger. To compensate for that they have to be fewer. If you trade, learn to trade on strong (3-) Elliot Waves and clear candle stick patterns. If you only go long, you must know the deadly toxic mushrooms where the most toxic is the grave stone DOJI.

    And you must know the concept of multicolinearity. MACD and RSI are not independent. They tell the same story. One indicator may be faster though. If speed is what you need, concentrate on that price indicator. It is very important to study volume. Look again at the exponential increase in volume when the Enron house starts burning.

    Look at this

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/adv...false&state=15


    decade long Microsoft chart where I compare it to the NSADAQ index and use a 13 (prime number) month (about a year) exponential moving average. I use exponential moving averages since they are faster then simple averages. You can of course use three averages to get an indication of how over / under valued a share is for different trading / investment horizons.

    Directional Movement Indicator (DMI) and ADX (that you use) are slow, but can be great. Where DMI+ (the blue line) crosses DMI- (the read line) from below may be buy signals. That chart does not show volume, so you need to supply the chart with one or more volum indicators.

    Quote Originally Posted by Clicken View Post
    I would expect Sony to rebound faster than Nokia, due to the various markets it caters to, and of course their quality products. However I really haven't studied either in depth to know if they have other problems. Nokia caught my eye as I was scanning through the different market sectors looking for opportunity. Based on the bit of info I have, I won't hold my breath in wait, for either. Short term would be my approach, if I were to ride these waves.
    You should also be aware of Bots. Bots have invaded the Norwegian stock exchange. You can use bot / automatic trading to your advantage. Trade on a higher frequency than bots and use dips in the share price because of bot over selling (if it is possible to identify that) as a buy opportunity. Try to pick clear trends and don't let the noise from bots disturb you. It is difficutl for Bots to do a careful fundamental anlysis. You can look at the fundamentals. You can start reading the quarterly reports from the last page (bad news are there) and to the first page. You can read the footnotes better than the Bots. The human eye is better at reckognizing patternes than bots. Last but not least, you can put two or more reports side by side and compare if the layout or the reporting has changed. Have the colors, the style, the footnotes and layout changed from one year ( quarter to the next. Then you should lift your eyebrows and ask why?

    P.S.There is a saying,

    I have seen many technical traders, but not many rich
    so fundamental analysis is a must as a postion trader. And don't always rely on what you can read in newspapers and online. Warren Buffett made his own P/E indicators. Peter Lynch, compared P/E for companies to the P/E for the market and used that as a signal. A high P/E compared to the market P/E is bearish, while a low is bullish.
    Last edited by kgun; 04-16-2012 at 04:21 AM.

  9. #9
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    Look at the expected profit increase as the "fair value". Then the actual outcome was below "fair value" and as such a bearish signal.
    A signal at best but not the reason. IMO

    big bearish candlestic a reaction to Googles share split?
    Or, reaction to the signs of the times and the social mood?

    Fear and greed motivate the actions. I really can't believe that people would abandon a money maker due to the split, people will ride no matter who drives, however people will jump ship if they fear a crash is eminent, or they have to get off because of other influences, such as needing money.

    Would portfolio managers rearrange their positions frequently to maximize the profits in the shorter time? Let's say I bought at $200 and at $400 the price wasn't moving up very fast and I found another stock which was showing signs of moving up from a $50 price but since I don't have cash, I sell the $400 to get the new lower position. Knowing that institutions are the biggest influence on movements, I reason that they don't marry a stock but rather constantly trade positions to maximize profit.

    There are too many variables to give credit to just one, that is all I am suggesting.


    ... It is most important to know those toxic mushrooms
    Yes plural, hence I have to keep referring to the school because I haven't become quite as familiar with them as apparently you have! I like the soldier crow, and burning house analogy, that's memorable!

    And, I do use a volume indicator, I just forgot to mention it. I have learned from studying charts that the increase in volume usually occurs near or at a reversal. The financial statements filed with the SEC are most trustworthy. I check the fundementals and financial history... and look for clear patterns.

    I studied Prechter's books, tutorials, subscribed to his forecast and receive his newsletter. He is one of the best teachers, IMO because he takes a step beyond the technical and fundamentals which are actually complimentary to the EW theory.

    Your insight and guidance is appreciated too!

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