2006 Search Engine Projections?

[greeneagle]

GOOGLE with 46% of SE Market now?

Somehow, I missed it, and I suspect a lot of others did too.
Nielson NetRankings (http://www.netratings.com) reported the following Web Search Statistics for the foremost Search Engines a few months ago:

GOOGLE: 46.2%
YAHOO: 22.5%
MSN: 12.6%
AOL: 5.4%
My Way: 2.2%
Ask: 1.6%
Netscape: 1.6%
iWon: .9%
Dogpile: .9%
Earthlink: .8%
Others: 5.3%

Danny Sullivan reported on it over at Search Engine Watch. (http://searchenginewatch.com/reports/article.php/2156451)

How accurate do you think these stats are?
What implications do these stats have for future SEO?
Are YAHOO and MSN almost as powerful as GOOGLE together?

It's about time to start making our yearly Search Engine projections for the new year. Hey, even 10% market shares are game for purchase. Are any of them going to pull "rabbits" out of the hat like the GOOG recently? Is GOOGLE going to stop pulling "rabbits" out...oops "Analytics" was a "premie".

How about it let's hear your projections, wild as they may be!

Ken

[SEOforGoogle]

Local search will gain more importance in the seo field.

It will be a fragmented market with lots of opportunities, albeit smaller, but it's an area that will grow tremendously.

[flood6]

I don't think I had ever heard of My Way, but I was surprised to see it had a larger share than Ask.

It turns out My Way (http://www.myway.com/) is powered by Ask. Danny mentiones this in his report that Ken linked in the OP.

I'm thinking that the players are pretty well "locked-in" meaning that there won't be any new search engines to come along and challenge Google, Yahoo, MSN, and Ask. They might take share away from each other, then give it back.

Though I'm sure everyone thought AltaVista was the cat's pajamas and always would be, too. I just think Google has built up enough loyalty (while shaking up Yahoo and MSN) that they won't be taken off guard again. Any startup in the search arena will be snached up by one of the big boys before they can make a real play.

[TrafficProducer]

Count and Count again!

Search once don't find what you want. 1 click

Search again don't find what you want. 2 click

and so on, increasing counts...

But then find a site and search that site.,no counts addded to main engine.

[Smoky]

How accurate do you think these stats are?
What implications do these stats have for future SEO?
Are YAHOO and MSN almost as powerful as GOOGLE together?

Ken[/quote]

Great questions.
Well, from my humble perspective, looking at the stats for my site, the top three certainly come close, Ask is featured and so are some others, but the top 3 are in about the same proportions

Personally I don't think this will change much in the next 12 months and with Google continuing to frequently change its algo, I think most of us will continue to focus on Google, may be at the neglect of the others.

Your last question is very interesting and Yes, I do think that together they actually 'out-do' Google.
The interesting thing I've noticed, is that the traffic I get from Yahoo and MSN looks at considerably more of my pages that the visitors from Google... What does that suggest about the demographics of Google vs Yahoo, are shoppers using Yahoo and MSN more so than Google? My stats certainly would suggest that.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents worth

Smoky

[slideri812]

MSN at 12%!? Are you kidding me? I recently read a piece (can't recall where now) that stated MSN was pulling in all of 3%. Given their small margin a 9% difference is huge.

As for the geo targeted searches we have been performing geo specific SEO for about three years now. In fact that is one of the corneer stones of our business. I say this because most of our clients are local and their target market is local. This is an area that was being neglegted by most developers in area area. Heck, as small as we are are have been the only firn to publicly state that we provided geo targeted SEO.

So, with all that said, now that the average joe blowe knows he/her can search for and find good results based on their geo location I see the importace of this type of SEO shooting through the roof next year.

[DrTandem1]

My stats show Google about 40%, now. That means a whopping 60% are searching with other engines. Those numbers are reversed of only about a year ago. That translates into a 20% loss in market share for being the search engine of choice.

If that trend continues, Google will be another dot com casualty. Interesting how chasing the dollar rather focusing on your core business causes you to actually lose business.

The two engines that have shown the most gain are MSN and Yahoo. Yahoo in particular should be watched as their partner, SBC, became AT&T a week ago. Look for big gains for Yahoo in the first quarter of 2006. Google should have thought twice before letting their former partner, Yahoo, get away.

It is also important to note that Google's financial survival depends on search, while Yahoo and MSN make up the majority of their revenue in other areas.

[TrafficProducer]

Google will be another dot com casualty.

It's all about cash now, not so much returning the best results.

Like Microsoft Google may be too big and disliked because thy don't give others a real chance.

[jmoran77]

I personally think google will take a larger decline than posted as the Search Engine of Choice. When it comes to making money and bringing the website owner revenue I believe Yahoo and MSN will come out with vast improvements and eventually bully their way to the top. I think that the one to watch the most is Yahoo as MSN and Google are well hated/loved. The consistent "algo" updates from google can work against them in the future , but right now seems to be what keeps google far ahead right now. Can google conquer the local search, we shall see, but I doubt it. [/code]

[espectations]

I agree with slideri812 - my customers also target local markets so we market their products and services to that specific market. Google.co.za vs Google.com do render different results now. In the beginning it did not.

One thing I am not to sure about is whether the locals search Google.co.za vs Google.com - might be that some customer education will be required.

I see similar trends with my sites regarding decrease of Google and increase of MSN and Yahoo.

It is going to be an interesting year ahead.

[ADAM Web Design]

Interesting stats, but personally I don't think any of us can make predictions of any kind based on what is provided to us. There are some pieces of informatino missing, all of which relate to big bidness:

1) How much are the ISPs responsible for search engine traffic? Bell has partnered with MSN, and Rogers with Yahoo! here in Canada. How does this play out in the rest of the world, and how big a factor is it?

2) How do the stats play out across various countries where say one engine or the other may have a stronghold? (e.g. Google China, MSN UK, etc.)

Personally, I believe that the regional search engines will take hold. What I see happening in the near future is along the lines of "Google Toronto", "MSN New York", etc. whereby the keywords and phrases used to describe the sites will contribute to their regional rankings.

[dburdon]

Looks like you guys and girls in North America have an oligopoly. In the UK Google is vastly more dominant with a 70% market share according to Hitwise. MSN, Yahoo and then Ask make up about 25%.

[Chatmaster]

I just had a look at the stats on Hitwise as well and it does correspond in a way with Nielsen Netratings for our industry in US anyway. I do however that general search engines are still very much applicable. In South Africa for example most of our searches are going abroad,...statistically. But it makes sense to me as I would much rather buy abroad than local as it is much cheaper.

Local search will open up the search industry with more choices and Niche markets. This will stimulate the internet growth as well. Not to mention opportunities for the Shop on the corner. I can already see the fridges of the future using Google to search for milk so they can order when they reach minimum rations,...lol

More relevant to this post though.

I believe these stats are important because this makes it more difficult for SEO's like me that wants the entire cake for themselves. With more competition I will actually have to find a balance between Google, Yahoo! and MSN in order to rank well on all of them. It will also allow for SEO's starting specializing in the different SE's.

I have a number of US focused sites and I must say. My conversion rate of Google is much better than anywhere else. My referrals are much higher than these stats say for Google despite having better rankings in MSN and Yahoo!

[swordfish-1]

I agree with Dr. Tandem that MSN and Yahoo are working their way up into Goog's market share even more than is being reported. Personaly, I couldn't be happier about it.

Google's attempt to increase revenues through adwords, and the folly of the most recent algo update
have succeded in driving local search engines to other vendors such as ASK and MSN who are producing more relevant searches. Adsense was a good idea, but
the abuse that ensued created a lot of useless content on the web.

On the SEO side, we may all be able to get back to the basics of relevant content, relevant links, and metatags without second guessing every little thing we do to satisfy Google. I hope that the attempt to
over-capitalize search results proves to be a failed experiment. Those recent projection numbers seem to
indicate a trend in that direction.

[concho]

I'm willing to predict that usage will improve for MSN at the expense of Google.

For the searching I do, MSN is on target much more often than Google. It's kinda like Google used to be. I'm probably not the only person that notices this.

[incrediblehelp]

I do agree local search will be a big part of search in 2006, but even more will be personalization. Have you noticed how Yahoo and Google have you signed into your personal account automatically before you do a search? This is nothing new to any of us, but as these guys release enticing tools that we sign up for more of the masses will be automatically signed into these pages and have our daily searching habits tracked more and more.

We all know about the recent tools from Google that will mine our personal search data, but Yahoo just came out with RSS delivery right into your Yahoo email account as well. My mind wonders how this data could be used by Yahoo to better themselves.

I disagree with some posting that Google will lose market share. Believe me I would love to see it happen, but something drastic would have to happen to Google or at least the non-technical public image of Google for the lay person to stop saying things like, "well just go Google it and you'll see". Google updates (good or bad) barely get any press with investors and finance gurus supposedly in the know on the inner workings on Google. Why in the heck would average Joe surfer care about it?

One thing I would like to see happening more in technical schools and universities is the concept of SEO being taught hand in hand with web design or marketing classes. It is totally irresponsible by teachers not to include this in their curriculums.

[Pascal77]

Hi, i'm new and i will keep this short because my English isn't so good.

Google hits here, Belgium and the Netherlands, a marketshare of more than 80%.
Second is a local SE Ilse and third msn.
Others don't count really.

I don't think that Google is gonna drop marketshare because they have now statistics and they now very accurate who is looking for what and how.


PS : someone has a good link for CSS tutorials?

[incrediblehelp]

PS : someone has a good link for CSS tutorials?

Here are some good links:
http://www.jaankanellis.com/css-resources/

I also hear this book is pretty good:

http://www.sitepoint.com/books/css1/

[wrmineo]

Assuming that the predictions hold true, I think what is more important, is to realize that although Google takes in a large share, the next two, Y! and MSN, make up another 35% share and should not be ignored in focusing your online marketing efforts.

[wilderness]

Frankly, I would not be unhappy to see Google lose market share. I try to be objective in spite of some bitterness due to the downgrading of my site by Google since Jagger, replaced by directories and sites that have far less relevance for my region. The same site sits high on the first page for all the keywords I want with msn and yahoo. Lately, their results seem more pertinent on all sorts of subjects compared to Google. I would say it's my imagination, but I've actually had a few people mention the same to me.
I don't know why Google got so radical with the recent update, but the sites that really dropped that I'm most familiar with are like my own, they have never advertised with Google. That smells a lot like too much self interest and not enough concern for the average searcher. Or is that my imagination as well?

[DrTandem1]

Out of laziness more than anything else, I usually search using the Google Toolbar. The other day, after looking for something through several pages and search terms on Google without success, I went to Yahoo and found it on the first page.

Although, the Toolbar appears to save time, I have now recently been using Yahoo with far less time wasted on poor results. I know of several quality sites that can not be found (at least easily) on Google, but come up on the first page of both Yahoo and MSN.

There could be several reasons for this such as Google sandbagging newer sites or whatever, but the bottom line is Google is hiding sites from the searchers in their organic SERPs. I'm an adult and really don't need the socialistic censoring that Google employs. Looking at the ratings, I see that I am not alone.

[wilderness]

Actually Dr T, I've downloaded the Yahoo toolbar and it sits there right under my Google toolbar and is handy as could be. I just have to see if msn has one, and if so, it'll get downloaded under the google toolbar on the other browser I use since I test using both Explorer and Firefox.
Anyway, thanks for verifying my suspicions!