Google Predictions For 2004

[Garrett]

What will happen in theworld of search in 2004? That's just what I wondered and so I wrote to the top search engine optimizers in the field to get their predictions for 2004.

Greg Jarboe, of SEO-PR, sees the Google News tab as an excellent way for companies to generate traffic.

"Getting visibility in Google News will become a PR priority in 2004. Google News attracted 3.4 million unique users in July 2003, according to Nielsen//NetRatings. This ranked Google News in the top 20 current events and global news sites. Google News had 2.24 million unique visitors in August, according to comScore's Media Metrix, making it the 17th most popular general news site.

"In 2004, both Nielsen//NetRatings and comScore Media Metrix will report that Google News has climbed the charts to become one of the top 10 brands or channels in its category. Not bad for a little "beta" project that was launched in September 2002."

http://www.seo-pr.com

Bruce Clay, of BruceClay.com, had some Google predictions that I thought were worth sharing, especially in light of his accurate prediction of the 12/20 algorithm shift.

Here's what Bruce predicted about Google:

Google 1: I think that the other shoe has not fallen and that while the initial Google cleaning has somewhat stabilized in the 20% of the high traffic sites adjusted, I think that the remaining adjustment could be traumatic.

Google 2: There will be an IPO, followed by acquisitions, mostly for emerging technology firms in linguistics, foreign markets, and geo-targeting. This will distract and delay technology implementations in some areas but they will retain market share.

Google 3: Froogle will become more integrated into the search results where the search phrase is a specific brand name, but even this will become geo-targeted.

Google 4: There will be a big push to get Google onto cell phones and PDA's.

Google 5: Look for increased partnership issues: HotBot, Ask.com, and Time-Warner properties.

http://www.BruceClay.com

This Google prediction, from Mike Banks Valentine, was too fun to leave out. This is the long shot prediction and it makes me think Mike may have a future in fiction...

"Google's IPO fizzles after the new non-relevant search results cause searchers to stop using them entirely. When they announce they've gone back to the pre-Florida algorithm, they gain back their die-hard fans. But it seems like too little, too late for most of the remaining public.

"Then suddenly, open source search engine "Nutch" launches a massive campaign to become the Google replacement. Nutch.com is an overnight success and becomes the new worldwide favorite. Yahoo makes a buyout offer for Nutch and MSN announces they'll develop their own . . . oops, not open source - it'll incorporate .Net, be called .Netch and will be tied to Longhorn.

"MSN buys Google data centers and hardware at firesale prices after hiring the star staff right before a Google Bankruptcy is announced."

http://www.SearchEngineOptimism.com

Dan Thies had his own "fiction" prediction:

"Google Print's successful launch will lead to a wave of keyword-stuffing in books, and the most common name for Chapter One of romance novels will be 'breast, breasts | Chapter One Breasts'"

http://www.seoresearchlabs.com

Me? I see Google killing the Yellow Pages once their localized search is in full effect. When will this happen? Ask me next year... :)

Don't be shy - what do you predict from Google for the year 2004?

[awall19]

While the change will not necissarily be specifically at Google, one of the biggest changes that will occur due to google will be the creation of more tightly focused theme specific directories.

I also think the upcomming loss of Yahoo and shifting of MSN away from LookSmart will be a blessing in disguise for Google. With the Inktomi and Google algorithms differentiating substantially from one another search engine marketers will have to worry about optimizing for a couple different algorithms.

This coupled with improvement in local link interconectivity technologies will make rank manipulation less and less appealing.

The value of topical authoritative links will grow substantially.

also...Google buys MicroSoft, destroys Longhorn, pushes open source developement software to new level...

[greeneagle]

The Florida update will look like a "warm up session" after 2004.
Our Speculations:

1. GOOGLE will finish divesting itself of the Page Rank patent royalty ties to Stanford before the IPO. The “Florida Update” was nothing but a few new spokes in a reinvented wheel.

2. MSN will start crawling aggressively with a new advanced bot and start feeding MSNsearch directly. Microsoft has been uncustomarily slow in going for the ad revenue which is about to double to over $5 billion.

3. Looksmart will announce new strategic business alliances sometime shortly after Jan. 1st, and WISENutbot will be crawling for someone else. Recently they have really ramped up crawl frequency and depth. Why, if they are losing MSN?

4. The butler (Jeeves) will be at your door more.

5. ZEAL will give DMOZ a run. Already several are reporting that MSN rankings moved up dramatically after listing with ZEAL.

There are many signs that we will be looking at several ripples in the pond. The Florida update was just a first test in a major campaign for IPO make ready. After all, it is the most anticipated and probably the most valuable IPO ever. Should we not expect that to cause severe financial ripples in the industry? They were not trying to hurt anyone – but some big changes have to come down the pike before IPO!

Hang on! Fasten your seatbelts! – 2004 is going to be a lot more turbulent!

I am sure several of you have opinions and are witnessing strange stats also: New bots, Old Bots crawling more, Gyrating MSN SERPs, Bots that look, smell, act and feel like major search engine bots and are not identified, sudden increases in phone browser stats, ---- It’s definitely going to be a ride in 2004!

Just our opinion,

Ken

[RsL]

"In 2004 Google will Partner with CrossWeb.com to corner the targeted audience..."

Ok, ok, so It's more if a wish...

:D

[Lucrecia]

In 2004, Google spiders will be able to index contents hidden, in big sites like Catholic.net, by three or more PHP parameters.

It´s a wish...[/url]

[twopooches]

Small businesses will benefit from the Google changes. The small business owner will have a better chance to succeed therefore generating more income all around. Already I see many of my client's sites ranking higher in relevant results.
Vaguely I remember years ago using characters in a search term to narrow down my search. I would then receive results from pages with relevant content. I did not receive a lot of results that were loaded with un related material or sites that "paid" to be on top.
Remember change is good...it keeps us on our toes.

[Dragonsi]

I hope that all SE's cut down on SPAM sites and weed out the linkrot. The small business can then start to get real visits and increase turnover with their new found higher ranking. The big boys can afford to advertise, SME's need all the free help they can get.

[amabaie]

I usually listen very carefuly to what Bruce Clay has to say, but this?


I think that the other shoe has not fallen ...


Come on, Bruce. A centipede has more than just two shoes. And I expect there will be many, many of them.

[MekhongKurt]

Hi Garret and All:

I certainly have no special insight or sources of information, but I do expect Google will come under increasing pressure -- highly irritated pressure -- regarding the way it returns results.

My own site is a low-volume one, given its narrow focus, but I orginally derived nearly half what traffic I do get from Google searches. Over tghe past 2-3 years, I've watched those returns gradually ebb to the point they account for 20% or less of my site traffic. Yet I constantly optimize my metatags and add keyword-rich text pages on a fairly regular and frequent basis. So I don't know what's going on, and *I'm* getting slowly madder than hell.

Adding to my irritation is that I've read all their guidelines, Terms of Service, FAQ's, etc. -- but for the life of me I can't see anything I'm doing or failing to do that accounts for my drop in Google searches.

I presume I'm not alone, which is why I say I expect Google to come under angry pressure this year. I know I've e-mailed them repeatedly (but not excessively -- I'm talking 4-5 times over the past couple of years) but without even the courtesy of an automated reply.

Since Google is the only gorilla on the block, I will, of course, continue to try to please them, but ONLY because they ARE the only show in town.

[luvdavy]

Hi Garret and All:


I presume I'm not alone, which is why I say I expect Google to come under angry pressure this year. I know I've e-mailed them repeatedly (but not excessively -- I'm talking 4-5 times over the past couple of years) but without even the courtesy of an automated reply.


Do you know...I have emailed Google about 4 times in the last say, 6 months. Everytime I've ever done so I've gotten a personal reply from them. Usually not a name, but certainly not a standard form letter. And they usually respond within about 4 days, too.

Jan

[amabaie]

MekhongKurt wrote:

I constantly optimize my metatags and add keyword-rich text pages on a fairly regular and frequent basis.
Bang-on on the content. Forget the meta tags. They won't help you with Google. Focus instead on constantly building your inbound links -- both quantity and quality. Your competition probably is, and that would explain at least part of a slow slipping on Google.

You might hire an SEO to give your site a review. I suspect that if you are still focusing on meta tags, you are probably relying on some other outdated info that floats forever around the web. More importantly, you are probably not responding to key "new" changes, such as "stemmming" and the possible application of "communities" (which some believe might already be applied).

Good luck.

[minstrel]

A clarification:


Forget the meta tags. They won't help you with Google.

You might hire an SEO to give your site a review. I suspect that if you are still focusing on meta tags, you are probably relying on some other outdated info that floats forever around the web.
While I don't disagree with most of what you've said here, amabaie, see
this thread (http://www.webproworld.com/viewtopic.php?t=10802) and specifically this article (http://www.seorank.com/analysis-of-hilltop-algorithm.htm) mentioned there, and more specifically this quote from the article:

New Google Ranking Formula = {(1-d)+a (RS)} * {(1-e)+b (PR * fb)} * {(1-f)+c (LS)}

Where:

RS = RelevanceScore: (Score based on keywords appearing in Title, Meta tags, Headlines, Body text, URL, Alt text, Title attribute, anchor text etc. of your site)
It is probably true that meta tags don't carry the weight they once did but I'm not convinced they're irrelevant even for Google... for example, if I do a search for certain keywords or keyphrases relevant to my site, depending on which ones I use the Google list highlights words from my title, description tag, or keywords tag. I'm not talking here about just using the description tag as a summary - I'm talking about highlighted words within that tag as a response to my query.

Also, Google and Yahoo et al. are the major search engines but not the only ones.

[Ender]

Prediction: Google's ranking method will be revealed to involve a large warehouse where monkeys throw darts at a massive internet network map.

Seriously, though, I think for Google, 2004's gonna be all about Showing Them the Money. I think we'll start seeing a move towards more and more preferential placement for paying customers.

[cookiefan]

I'm not a professional at this and are fairly new to search engine algorism,...

But I do have a bit of thoughts.

I look at each major players like Yahoo!, Ebay, MSN...as Big O shopping malls. I want something I go in and search. People want to find things easily and quickly. When the economy picks up, people all have jobs, money, and things to do...Who's got time all day to search online for some rock-bottom price stuff. (Except for some particular shoppers)

Like always, bigger players rule and smaller players get squeezed out. For all small players like me,...REALLY REALLY need to start make some serious connections with related bigger players to tag along...,before the next wave comes...

Or else be 'Nemo in the big sea'...

...

It's possible websites are organized into mall, plaza, and community stores...and stuff like that. Things will become more 'organized' and easier to find. Of course from time to time there will be some flashy, unique, or big buck players joining in...but chances are it would take a lot more time and money to join then than now.

I believe MSN and Google has already felt it coming and wanting to be more like Yahoo!, places to shop and search - nationally or internationally.

If people want to change ways to search and find unique or different type of stores,...they could always start their own search engine. Mostly small players with really unique, useful, or cheap stuff/service for sale.

This is the way people are taught to think and behave...(One running east. One running west. The world is round & will meet at the other end.)

Seems like I have a more pessimistic character. But I do often believe in my own hunch...

[cbp]

Prediction: Google's ranking method will be revealed to involve a large warehouse where monkeys throw darts at a massive internet network map

Do you mean they are going to be replacing the pigeons (http://www.google.com/technology/pigeonrank.html)?

CBP

[Anita Campbell]

Greg Jarboe, of SEO-PR, sees the Google News tab as an excellent way for companies to generate traffic.

"Getting visibility in Google News will become a PR priority in 2004.

How exactly does one get a release or a story picked up by Google News? Where would I learn more about getting into Google News? I'm pretty new to all this, and would appreciate any help. Thanks!

[cbp]

How exactly does one get a release or a story picked up by Google News? Where would I learn more about getting into Google News? I'm

From the Google News help page:

Please contact us at news-feedback@google.com. We're pleased to work with individual publishers to ensure their content is appropriately represented in Google News.

CBP

[greeneagle]

Anita Campbell asked:
How exactly does one get a release or a story picked up by Google News? Where would I learn more about getting into Google News? I'm pretty new to all this, and would appreciate any help. Thanks!

Go Here for GOOGLE News Alert Emails:
http://www.google.com/newsalerts
It is in BETA, but....

If looking to have stories picked up by GOOGLE news go here:
http://news.google.com/intl/en_us/about_google_news.html
or write them at:
news-feedback@google.com

Hope this helps,

Ken

[Anita Campbell]

Thank you for your help, cbp and greeneagle!

Google News looks like a neat feature. I am exploring ways to use it to try to help small businesses get their press releases picked up and reported. Small businesses on tight budgets have so few options for getting national media coverage.

[greeneagle]

Note:
They review 4500 sources and it is a fairly automated process!
Ken

[cbp]

Yes Ken is right - its very automated.

I assume that if you want press releases for your clients to be picked up by Google News, the press release would first have to be picked up by one of those 4500 sources, then Google pick it from them.

CBP

[greeneagle]

A good source is:
www.Press-Release-Writing.com
Ken