So you have a better model than
Nobel Price Winners M-M?
Alternatively you can
value a company as a real option, but the forumla is much more complex.
Further explanation at
Rubinsteins excellent site.
Yes, mathematical finance is close to rocket science. Even rocket scientists may crahs out of orbit when they meet the most difficult option pricing models, e.g. if the undrelying process is chaotic (that is short term predictable. Meaningless to try to predict it over the length of the attractor).
Copy from a related post at W3 Schools:
Will there be a Web 2.0 bubble? (Should W3 School members be aware of this?)
SE engines use advanced empirical Bayesian filtering that is used in rocket science like the Kalman filter. Options pricing formulaes are in some cases more advenced than those used by rocket scientists. These formulaes are used to value a company, websites and more generally eProperty.
I like very much the following statement made by Benjamin Graham, by many called the Dean of Wall Street.
"You are no more right even if most people agree with you."
Especially regarding businesses, credibility and reliability this is of utmost importance. The march 2000 dot com bubble should be well known by webmasters that has been online for some years. Internet sites were valued at thousands and millions of dollars without (or zero) earnings. Price / earnings (P/E) is a very much used magnitude in finance.
P / 0 = Infinite !! Infinite Price earnings.
Many of them also went broke.
What is a website worth thats a few years old?
It is no problem to manipulate information on the WWW. You can sign up with different nicks on different IP addresses.
You can manipulate information through your own network.
This is serious. Be sceptical when too many people agree. Be sceptical when too many smile and laugh.
"
Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper. To trace the history of the most prominent of these delusions is the object of the present pages. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
Copy on a related post at WebProWorld.