Search Analysts Predict Coming Google Shift

Garrett · #1 (**permalink**) 02-12-2004, 02:17 PM

Jim Hedger and Ross Dunn of Stepforth released their predictions today that Google rankings will undergo another change in the coming week.

"We are predicting another massive change to listings over the next week, based on our analysis of how Google is looking at incoming links and its recent behaviour patterns."

As proof they offered that, "Google has, in the past 24-hours, radically upped the link-count on most of our clients' sites."

Yesterday Google only recognized 105 of the more than 1000 actual links to Stepforth's site. Today Google shows 220.

This enormous change in the number of Google-recognized links to the Stepforth site indicates a change in what the Google algorithm perceives as a valid link.

The rise in links also indicates that Stepforth's site, along with all the other sites in Google's index, may soon rank differently.

Have you noticed a change in the number of links to your site? What do you think this indicates?

seafoam · #2 (**permalink**) 02-12-2004, 03:08 PM

Quote:

This enormous change in the number of Google-recognized links to the Stepforth site indicates a change in what the Google algorithm perceives as a valid link.

I haven't noticed anything, but I haven't been watching too closely either.

One thing I would say though, is that it seems to be listing some very odd sites for one of my sites. One is an off-topic bulletin board where I made several posts and included my url. What is really odd is that it only has PR2/10. The other page is a huge list of members who joined SetiAtHome the same day as I did.

Now, if Google thinks those links are important or relevant, they have got problems!

Derek
Seafoam Woodturning Studio

cbp · #3 (**permalink**) 02-12-2004, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Yesterday Google only recognized 105 of the more than 1000 actual links to Stepforth's site. Today Google shows 220.

This enormous change in the number of Google-recognized links to the Stepforth site indicates a change in what the Google algorithm perceives as a valid link.

There is some very flawed logic in this. Google have never shown all links to a site, but if it knows about a link and can crawl it, Google counts it towards PR. These people are claiming that Google are now recognising more links to their site as they now are showing them as a backlink. Google would have been recognising them without showing them.

For eg ... find a site that has PR and no Google backlinks showing - there are plenty of them. Check the backlinks at alltheweb - the number usually match the PR (roughly) --> Google must be counting the backlinks towards PR, but not showing them as a backlink.

CBP

cbp · #4 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 12:37 AM

I may have to retract that last message - something big appears to be happening on Google - not sure of its another update.

CBP

cbp · #5 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 12:59 AM

Google appears to be dancing.

CBP

Garrett · #6 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 10:30 AM

if this IS a full blown update, what should we name it?

Brittany suggested the Valentine's update :)

minstrel · #7 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 11:13 AM

The Valentine's Day Massacre?

Actually, I think it has to be a city or state -- how about "Kentucky"? or "Kentucky-of-all-places"?

Either way, "this calls for immediate discussion". We may not have much time - Google waits for no (wo-)man.

Unclefussy · #8 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 11:45 AM

The Valentine's Day Massacre is good for me.
I had better then 15 links now it shows 3.
???????????????????????????

webhoster · #9 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 12:30 PM

hate to burst your bubble but update or no update, a change in backlinks means nothing. is not an indicater of anything. google is notoriously and historically known to pick up and drop links on a web site from month to month. this is nothing new, depends on crawling activity and other factors including changes google makes.

minstrel · #10 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webhoster

a change in backlinks means nothing. is not an indicater of anything. google is notoriously and historically known to pick up and drop links on a web site from month to month.

it's not really that Google is dropping and picking up links - it's more in what Google chooses to report when you query backlinks, with the link:www.website.com being the weakest...

you will see more of your backlinks using allinurl:www.website.com or +"www.website.com"...

karkfump · #11 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 01:53 PM

You are quite right minstrel about the other queries, such as +"www.domainname.com" being more relevant. Google only shows 4 backlinks to my site using the link:www.alaskahunts.net approach and 1 link is from ODP, 1 from Google's own directory and 2 from an outdoors directory. I used the same query in Alta Vista and came up with four pages of results including most of the actual business sites where my company is listed. The allinurl:www.alaskahunts.net query only produces 2 results on Google fro my company and these are 2 pages from my own site. As far as an another "update" goes, if it has happened it hasn't effected me at all. I still don't appear in the results for "alaska hunts" where I reigned in the top 5 for the past year or more.

ojo4max · #12 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 01:58 PM

FYI, I have 2 domains with same content. As an experiment, I haven't touched one in the last year and optimized the other with various Google recommendations. Well, the one I did not touch stayed at number one with the "discount marine supplies" keywords while the other one moved up an down from #4 to nowhere in sight. I thought that was interesting...

webhoster · #13 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 02:28 PM

nonetheless minstrel, a change in backlinks is hardly a justification for predicting a major shift in google aglo's. it will only lead to a thread with not very useful information for all and historically it's very hard for anybody to predict what google is doing. even those self-proclamining themselves experts in the field. especially since google has now they have taken most of their datacenters off line so nobody can see what is going on behind the scenes.

so, i just question the applicability of the term "search analyst" if predictions are being made on information such as a change in backlink activity, or is the post just to generate forum activity?

you'll have to parden me, but i am new to this forum but not google watching, and the truth is there are no good predictors of google that i have seen on any google forum or read. google is very good at keeping it's doing secret from most. and those that are entrusted with this information seem to be very good at not leaking it for the most part.

it is much better to generate discourse when google has in fact made a change in ranking that is evident and lasting and people than can share information on what they think the change might have been.

janeth · #14 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 02:51 PM

This is from Googleguy

I'm not sure if you'd call it an update exactly (different algorithms play more of a role than different data). But I'm guessing the change will probably roll out over the course of the weekend.

There also calling it Brandy and you can see whats going on here http://64.233.161.99 and
http://64.233.161.104

cbp · #15 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 02:59 PM

Its definitly an update ... but we need to revisit terminology. The updates that Google used to do were the addition of new data and addition of spam and other filters. The most recent so-called 'updates' (Florida, Austin, Brandy) have really been changes to the ranking algorithm - which is what GG is alluding to in the quote Janeth posted.

I still think the logic in the first post is flawed. Google update the publically available/change PR and backlinks on a different schedule (looks monthly lately) - the original message said that soon after Google does this, there is a major update -- I just think this is a BIG coincidence (and they will claim credit for prediciting this update).

CBP

janeth · #16 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 03:01 PM

Hi webhoster,

Welcome to the forum the above information I just posted was from Google.

rambodog · #17 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 03:05 PM

I have not seen link changes on about 50 sites I maintain. Would be nice to see all legitimate links recognized however.

Also, based on results pages on very competitive terms, if there is not a commerical site penalizer there is certainly a truely odd algorithm for site rankings.

janeth · #18 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 03:06 PM

Hi CBP,

Here is what Googleguy also had to say not sure if it helps what your saying or not I could be lost but I think this is what your saying.

Googleguy
"I believe that for the time being the visible PR and backlinks changes happen at a slightly different frequency."

StepForth_Jim · #19 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 04:07 PM

Hi. We're not sure about the use of the word UPDATE but we are pretty sure about changes in the SERPs coming next week.

It's not about how many backlinks (incoming links) Google shows when you type "link:www.YOURURL.com", it's about how Google treats or recognizes these links. At any rate, whenever there is a jump in the number of links Google perceives, you can bet there will be changes to the SERPs following quickly thereafter. At least with the "new" Google.

marysprayers · #20 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 04:42 PM

If Google does it to us all again, I know what I would call it, but for public record I call it junk.

I joined today not being an official web professional, but becoming hooked on messing with it all through having a commercial website. I have done a great deal of "optimizing" on my site with help from a professional, and a bit of my own work, and have seen it come up from #585 to presently (like this minute and not the next) #16 on a highly competitive keyword. Now I have dropping to 585 to look forward to again I guess.

The problem with it all is that there IS no apparent reason to the whole thing. One can pack content onto their site. Nothing. One can build links galore. Nothing. One can jump through all the hoops one is told to jump through and STILL nothing. Then one does nothing, like the gentleman above with two domain names, and Voila! Number one in the ranks.

I have scoured many a "view source" page in order to try to help myself learn, and I see no string of reasonably linked thoughts or page structures to understand why one site is #1 and the other is #585.

I've enjoyed reading these forums, and have learned a fair amount through them, but I have a feeling this is akin to the Emperor's New Clothes. I don't think anybody really has any idea of what goes on in Google. The one guy who apparently does, is not allowed out of the Google room, food and water being passed through a hole in the bottom of the door.

What am I missing?

cbp · #21 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 05:10 PM

Jim:

Quote:

we are pretty sure about changes in the SERPs coming next week.

Why next week? What would you call it thats happening right now.

Mary:

Quote:

If Google does it to us all again, I know what I would call it, but for public record I call it junk

I just had a quick look at a number of other forums about this update - the consensus is thats it pretty good for most posters - there are a few disgruntled ones, but nothing close to the anger caused by the last two updates.

CBP

HomeStar · #22 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 05:14 PM

It’s a role of the dice to really know what’s going to happen after the update. You can only optimize your site so much.

Then it’s in googles hands. :)

cbp · #23 (**permalink**) 02-13-2004, 05:23 PM

Homestar

This is off the theme of the thread, so mods may move it - you raised interesting point:

Quote:

Then it’s in googles hands

In the past it was reasonably easy to get a good Google ranking (it was more in our hands) - just pick a reasonably non-competitive keyword(s), do the on page optimization (eg keyword in title, H1, keyword density etc), get some links, especially with the keywords as anchor text, get a couple of directory links .... doing this it was easy to get to the first page of results, regardless of is you deserved it or not

Now with all the different theories surrounding the ranking changes at Google (see this thread: http://www.webproworld.com/viewtopic.php?t=10802), things are now more in Google's hands, which in all honestly should be the case. We can no longer manipulate results like we used do ... damn you Google, all the fun has gone :-)

CBP