Microsoft Search: Predictions For 2004

Garrett · #1 (**permalink**) 01-05-2004, 12:22 PM

I spoke with Dan Thies earlier today about Microsoft Search and he shared a great observation: Microsoft's strategy is about squashing competition, not competing with it.

That's why their upcoming entrance into the search industry is so interesting. It's like watching Kasparov walk into the world checkers championship - you have no idea how his game will proceed, but you know he's going to make some serious jumps.

I asked our resident SEO experts what their predictions were for Microsoft in 2004. Feel free to add your predictions, and be sure to read Dan Thies's article on how Microsofts's search strategy will affect their IIS sales.

No MSN Search in 2004. MSN will not roll out their own search engine in 2004. They'll continue to use Inktomi and Overture, both of which generate revenue. Microsoft's "focus on search technology" will first manifest itself in enterprise search products, and possibly not until the release of their next operating system, the "Longhorn" OS. They will recognize that the big problem isn't searching the web, it's searching your own network. When they do roll out their own search engine, it will be part of their master plan to have Microsoft Office replace HTML.

Dan Thies
http://www.seoresearchlabs.com

MSN Search By July. Expect nothing in the first six months for web search, and expect a lot at year end. Microsoft has patience, and they can wait as long as it takes.

Bruce Clay
www.BruceClay.com

The Google Contender. I believe we'll see Yahoo!, and possibly Microsoft, giving Google a run for its money. We won't be putting all of our eggs in one basket (Google) like we have during the past months/year.

Robin Nobles
www.academywebspecialists.com

MSN To Settle Paid Inclusion vs. Algorithmic Results. Paid inclusion will become a battleground in 2004. In January 2004, Yahoo is expected to replace Google with Inktomi to power its main search results. Inktomi has a paid inclusion program, which is being combined with the paid inclusion programs of AltaVista and FAST and will be sold by Overture through resellers like Marketleap and Position Technologies. In 2004, this will fuel an ongoing debate between Google, which does not support paid inclusion philosophically, and Yahoo, which does.

Google will argue, "Our search results represent our editorial integrity, and we have no plans to alter our automated process, which works very well in gathering information and delivering highly relevant results." Yahoo will argue, "Paid inclusion maximizes your reach by including pages that otherwise might not be crawled."

The debate will become heated and watched closely by Microsoft, which plans to build its own crawler-based search engine. The winner will be determined when Microsoft announces which approach it believes provides the most relevant results. This won't happen until late 2004 or early 2005.

Greg Jarboe
www.seo-pr.com

All Out War. MSN and Yahoo! will challenge Google for top search engine. MSN is working on creating their own search engine. Yahoo! owns Inktomi, and with the purchase of Overture, also owns AlltheWeb and AltaVista. This sets the stage for quite a search engine war in 2004.

Daria Goetsch
http://www.searchinnovation.com

MSN Follows Google's Lead. MSN officially launches MSN search based on their own technology (mid to late 2004). After some AskJeeves-like attempts to show paid results for the majority of the SERP screen real estate, they realize nobody trusts this model and decide to go to a Google-like spare screen with only Overture results on the right and two paid results clearly labled at the top of the page.

Since dropping Looksmart paid results in January, they announce they've been developing their own PPC engine and will spend 6 billion dollars in developing it over the next ten years, incorporating search into the Longhorn operating system - delayed again year-end to make security upgrades.

Mike Banks Valentine
http://SearchEngineOptimism.com

fathom · #2 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 08:17 AM

Fathom's Predictions - no one will catch, compete (or squash) Google until Google makes a mistake with their searching market.

It matters not how deep your pockets are...

It matters not how good your technology is...

It matters not how many pages you have archived...

It matters not how attractive you make your PPC...

It matters not how many partners you have...

It only matters where people go to search... this is the market and the competition will have a uphill battle pulling people away from Google... unless Google loses sight of just who they need to please.

If the market is there... the money is there.

OneMoreBite · #3 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 01:35 PM

I agree with Fathom. Ask 10 of your friends - non web folk, what they use to do a search, and then you'll know which way the wind blows. Also ask them if they click on the paid listings? Many will say they jump over them cause they just figure they're ads.

Remember why everyone originally liked Google? No advertising. Plain, simple interface. No nonsense. I remember wondering how they'd ever make any money? Guess they're laughing all the way to the bank.

Kathryn

searchvehicle · #4 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 02:32 PM

Search engines promised to find unbiased results. With paid listings, they no longer fill that promise. Soon, the free listings will disappear and then the search engine will disappear, also.
I used to get information from a search. Now I get a site that will sell me information. Not the same!
Much content is dynamic, which can't be reliably found by a crawler. A new searching model is needed.
Will Microsoft be the one? I seriously doubt it. They are really good at marketing other people's great products.

Dragonsi · #5 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 02:45 PM

I remember when I first started to surf the web in 98. I never liked Yahoo then and still don't - too much information and over advertising on its pages. Ask Jeeves I felt a waist of time - search results were never what I was looking for. I mainly used my ISP's search box on their portal site (I was niave).

I soon discovered Google and loved its quick simple method of displaying results - This is how SE's should be, only displaying the basic information of it's results, if I want to know more, then give me the option and don't try to ram it down my throat.

Paid inclusion - now this is something that is not welcome by myself as a small businessman. When I started to submit sites in 2000, I most certainly did not want to pay to get included. The web was designed as a method of sharing data/information for free (or at least as cheap as possible), that's how it should stay. If I need to get noticed but my marketplace is very competitve, then yes - I would have to speculate to accumulate, but the SE's need to develope a better means of allowing paid advertising or 'sponsors links'. I do like Google's AdWords and I am currently using it myself. It's there in a clear position but seperate from the normal results.

It's bad news for SEO's if more crawlers and independant robots are unleashed, it's difficult enough to keep up with one SE's bot, let alone a score. I do suppose that could mean work though... :)

My biggest hope is the weeding out of linkrot and killing more of those SPAM sites (no one likes a cheat).... Good luck to all in 2004..

Edgecenter · #6 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 02:56 PM

What will happen when MS enters the search battle? Very predictable....example: they couldn't stop Sun/Java, so they "invented" new languages and platforms. They couldn't compete with other products so they buy them out.

MS wants to control every aspect of the desktop/windows market. If they want their own search engine to be THE search engine of choice, they will either a) make Google an offer they can't refuse, or, b) MS will come out with a lame search replacement and offer Windows XP version S and Office version S....all designed around their search engine. They'll enhance XML, .NET, and their portal technology to use the new MS search. And every Certified Microsoft Junkie will just have to have their new products, training, books, and videos.

Come to think of it....what ever happened to the Microsoft = Monopoly court ruling anyway?

jrcmatthews · #7 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 03:50 PM

Microsoft is and always will be focused on building things that cost money when you use them. For this reason, we can expect MS to embed their search technology within MS-Office. This will allow them to charge for the capability and undermine the competition at the same time.

alanwactor · #8 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 04:21 PM

As a small business owner, Google has been nearly useless for getting our site or pages listed. Nine months of being listed, we still show a page rank of Zero, and none of the sites that link to us show up.

We've tried writing Google and had no response at all. Although some of our listings show up #1 for our search phrases, they're all on paid advertising sites. Basically, we've written Google off and have no interest in pursuing them any further.

We're starting to get a lot of referrals from MSN and Yahoo search results. (Froogle too. Go figure.)

jgoddard · #9 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 04:24 PM

I agree with some of the other posts about what people will actually use.

If I told my grandma about all the possibilities that Dan Thies wrote about, she would be so confused she'd never turn her computer back on. I agree with Dan that those possibilities are very possible, and would be very cool, but that fact remains that people "just use google" and to change that isn't going to be as simple as some people think... unless Microsoft can somehow buy google, I think it will be a tight call between google, yahoo, and microsoft.

jondon · #10 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 06:41 PM

I don't know about who crushed who but let me tell you! Netscapes 7.1 browser, IMO, is a 1000% better than MS Explorer. As a matter of fact I HATE Explorer. The pop ups are unbelievable, there's errors and it closes just about every time I open it. It has sent so many error reports to MS that I'm surprised I havn't heard from them!!

Netscape 7.1 is fast, has a built in pop up stopper which works flawlessly, and never gets stuck or shuts down!

This is my browser and it shall remain!

BRAVO, Netscape!!

npdavis · #11 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 07:06 PM

Microsoft will never be top dog in anything except sales. This won't last forever.

Their products are generally 2nd rate. With software, as with music, quality is not the only factor important for scoring a big sales figure.

I bet the search never produces results as meaningful as google's...

Dragonsi · #12 (**permalink**) 01-06-2004, 07:39 PM

Unfortunatly with wealth comes power, you're not the only one that dislikes MicroSoft (myself included), a company that does release products before they are fully tested. They have a hard task ahead of them, but they have the patients and capital to wade through the difficult times of a new engine.

They always seam to come out smelling of roses, dispite the growing dislike for the name.

Timber · #13 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 12:52 AM

What I hate is going to a site based upon rank only to find out that the content does not match what I was after---or what they spidered their way to the top with----this gets even worse with all those PPC people---and you know who you are.

The build a page and plump it full of things which are realated to the search terms they want. Get approved and then change it to what ever it is they want you to see in the first place.

As for me and mine---I AM SICK AND TIRED of clicking a link which has PAID for one content and serve entirely something else!

But that's just my pet peeve!

If I want NONI JUICE, give me noni juice, not billy bobs wart removal!

chavda · #14 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 04:25 AM

Microsoft is truly a magnificent beast that can consume all, and so with its venture into searching, MS will prey on its target and strike when its ready and hungry enough. MS has the clout to join forces with almost anyone it wishes, with this it will spend its early days in finding its feet and find the most wanted solution and re present itself as the "New Look MS search Engine" it will be all singing and dancing, it will probably even make tea?

Dragonsi · #15 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chavda

Microsoft is truly a magnificent beast that can consume all, and so with its venture into searching, MS will prey on its target and strike when its ready and hungry enough. MS has the clout to join forces with almost anyone it wishes, with this it will spend its early days in finding its feet and find the most wanted solution and re present itself as the "New Look MS search Engine" it will be all singing and dancing, it will probably even make tea?

Yeh, I wonder if it will require regular updates to fix bugs that have been descovered just like all the other Microsoft apps.

fathom · #16 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by npdavis

Their products are generally 2nd rate.

Therein lies the value... consumers tend not to be versed in identifying quality... marketing works! :-)

Conficio · #17 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 11:54 AM

I have some serious questions about Dan's article.

What does Dan mean with ?

Quote:

# desktop search (content of documents)
# network search (intranet, servers, network storage)
# trusted source indexing and search (intranet and extranet)
# automated indexing of trusted web content
# spider-crawled web content

Most of this is all the same - Internet search and indexing
intranet --> webserver accessable from behind a firewall
extranet --> webserver with log-on
trusted source/content --> webserver with log-on

It lists effectively "desktop search" and "Internet search" and nothing else. Or did I miss something here?

What does Dan mean with "Apache does not have indexing"? Have a look at ht//dig and you get a full text indexing mechanism, that is easily configured and integrated into any web server. I have even build systems that used the ftp upload log to do automated incremental reindexing. It also indexes the full text for any web-site you want (Internet, Extranet, Intranet) and merges as you please. I don't see any advantage for future MS technology here. And IIS servers already scale pittyfully. If indexeing and search is added to the mix, Apache will have an even greater advantage.

And real dynamic web-sites (not the ones that are only dynamic because they customize content and colors for portal access) are dependend on data input for the result pages and therefore inherently not to be indexed - example a shopping baskets, orderstatus, currency converter (unless you have default values as examples). But here in most cases one looks for the service and not the results anyway.

And distributed indexing (aggregating distributed indexes to a comprehensive search) is regarded as too slow and of no advantage in the industry. See the comments on the open search and index project www.nutch.org.

Dan must also mean the comment about natural language search ironic. Because all - really all - PC users I know do not use the paper-clip, because it does not answer any reasonable end-user question. A discussion of the reasons would go to far.

I guess MS has to come up with either the usual bondage to their Desktop OS and Apps or some real advantages (such as an understanding of the context of search words "Apple Computer vs Apple the fruit" or "software to shoot photos vs. software to organize photos vs. software to publish photos vs. software to manipulate photos").

Dan might be right in the assumption that MS is mostly concerned in strengthening its server market position. But the key here is not features but scalebility, reliability and cost. Have a look at what BSD and Linux have done lately for scalebility of web-servers at www.slashdot.org.

And if I'd like to pay for my intranet search engine, why not buy the google search appliance?

By the way - why does google only index less than 10%?

Happy New Year
K<o>

alienzhavelanded · #18 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 12:41 PM

Garrett said: It's like watching Kasparov walk into the world checkers championship

I didn't know Kasparaov played checkers LOL

The Martian

yuyi · #19 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 03:46 PM

Every day we found more and more dynamic pages. If Google can’t index this pages and MS can find a way to offer this service the people will prefer get listed on this SE. This is the only way that MS can beat Google.

searchvehicle · #20 (**permalink**) 01-07-2004, 04:16 PM

I agree with this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conficio

And real dynamic web-sites (not the ones that are only dynamic because they customize content and colors for portal access) are dependend on data input for the result pages and therefore inherently not to be indexed

The search process could find hits by searching the databases behind dynamic pages. This will require the cooperation of the database owners.

Perhaps site owners will be willing to give more intimate access to their data. I expect most businesses recognize the value of their information and will not simply reveal their 'crown jewels' to a third party search firm, even if it is M$.

People who own valuable data can get back in control, because a searcher needs to come to them for information, not be satisfied with a search engine's cemsored (ranked) view.

mythman · #21 (**permalink**) 01-08-2004, 05:00 AM

If I'd been anxious to start a SE 'back in the day,' it would not have been "to pull in the paying webmasters!" My SE would serve the 'commoners' (the non-techies, the great unwashed) as "a program to find what they were looking for."

If MS wants to crush Google in the market of "finding what the great unwashed are looking for," something tells me that rating searches on the basis of 'amount of money paid' will not help them to gain that position. (I could understand if inclusion required an upfront flat-fee; but receiving site results based on fee-amount would be like receiving marriage pre-proposals based on the size of your bank-roll.)

downstrike · #22 (**permalink**) 01-14-2004, 02:31 AM

When I first came online in 97, enough people had told one another that Yahoo was the best search site long enough that most of them believed it. But Yahoo had become far too static for their own good. New sites weren't listed and dead sites weren't removed from their listings.

It took a while, but users eventually stopped trying to use them. For quite a while, the search industry didn't seem to have a clear leader, so it wasn't because any outstanding competitor edged out Yahoo.

Eventually NewHoo, ODP, Netscape Search, DMOZ or what ever they call themselves this year built themselves up, and then Google came along with new algorithms, and they both became leaders. Then they both turned commercial and firmly entrenched themselves into the land of stuffed shirts.

They both seem to continue to try to innovate, but then DMOZ seems to think that changing the name of their business is innovative. Google seems to think it's innovative to reinvent various wheels such as PPC advertising while fighting a running battle against SEO spammers.

Yahoo eventually woke up to the fact that they had lost the lead and has started trying to become competitive again. But they seem to think that buying other search companies is innovative.

Sooner or later someone is going to do something truly innovative that will change the way people search. If one of these big names uses its resources to do that, it may be sooner. If not, search technology may well stagnate until someone else comes up with the next bright idea and catches the big names dawdling.