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Old 12-26-2003, 05:04 PM
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Default Google's 2004 IPO

hey everyone
there's a high-gloss but somewhat interesting article in this past week's FORTUNE magazine about Google's upcoming IPO (probably in the spring) and the eclectic Wonder 'don't you wish you were us' Duo Sergey Brin and Larry Page.

my question to the group......who knows anything (hopefully more than i do) about the market in terms of Google being like the next Netscape (by that i mean when netscape went IPO in 1995 and everyone was like "wowiee" look what they just did)

is anyone gonna buy any shares? if you had the capital would you be investing or would you be just laughing at the people investing?

let's see...their annualizable (is that a word?) revenues for this year is expected to be 900 million.
all i know is that's a lotta doughnuts!
i'd luv to know your/anyone's thoughts on all this...

DAREN ;-}
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Old 12-26-2003, 05:32 PM
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Default Will I or won't I?

Daren --

I'm not a stock expert at all; however, what little I do know is this -- I'll buy 100 shares (as that is all I can afford). One has to purchase in 100-share blocks (hence, why 100). I have some stock with my employer that I'll be selling come January. I want it to be in 2004 as this is the year of my relocation and a lower employment expectation; so, the hit I'll take on taxes won't actually show up until 2005. I'm willing to take some of this precious money and buy Google as I think it'll go through the roof. I've never been on the ground floor of something this potentially spectacular and it's worth the risk to me.

If I weren't planning on relocating? I'd take ALL of the funds and buy Google. If I were cannier and more of a risk-taker, I'd still apply it all for "short term gain;" however, I'm simply not that brave and I'm not willing to risk failing at an already underfunded relocation.
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Old 12-26-2003, 06:54 PM
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Daren, I'm not a stock expert either, However, IPO's can be good and bad.
I got in on an IPO for GS - Goldman Sacs.
It was to IPO for 50 or so and when my buy went through I had paid 77, so my 100 shares that I thought would be $5000 turned into $7700, not to bad, I did sell out at 92 I think it was about a year later.

A bad one I did though was an IPO for PalmPilot, was to IPO for 35 had a 1 year target of 85, I put in an order for 100 shares as Palm was to do very well, well it did, by time my buy went through, only a few minutes into the day, I bought it at 145. OUCH!!!
What should of been a $3500 to $5000 buy turned into a $14,500 buy,, got money?? I made the buy, now pay for it.
Today GS is at $97 and Palm is at $11, hell of a down turn from 145 for Palm, while GS has held strong. I did sell Palm out at a loss a few months after buying it , sold at $85, cut my loss and run. Good thing I did, went all the way down to $8.00 over the next year. The crash of 2000.

Wish I'd had the $$$$ to do ebay IPO, oh well. I would of gone for that, but today their P/E is 104, the stock did a split at 120. I'd still like to have some.

I like to keep the P/E below 50 when doing stock buys.

Like I said you never know for sure what you will pay for a stock on the IPO.

The big thing to look at is the P/E.
The P/E on GS right now is 16.62
The P/E on Palm was n/a but has a 1year forward P/E of 112.00, that is getting kind of high.

As to your question, will I buy Google?
I am thinking about it, questions,, are they turning a profit now? What is the 1 year target? and What do we think the P/E will be?

I don't know all there is to know, all the above is the old been there done that!!

What I am saying is be ready for the worst and hope for the best..

Hope that all helped some anyway.
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Old 12-26-2003, 08:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unclefussy
I like to keep the P/E below 50 when doing stock buys.

Like I said you never know for sure what you will pay for a stock on the IPO.

What I am saying is be ready for the worst and hope for the best..

Hope that all helped some anyway.

thanks yes you helped plenty.......my dad just emailed me too and he knows a few things....but voices an overall similar opinion

but it seems that what you say here is becoming a mantra of sorts as i hear it repeated in various ways by many people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ldyguique
Daren --
I've never been on the ground floor of something this potentially spectacular and it's worth the risk to me.
this is where my head is (i think) too! i wanna be one of those cool people at dinner parties speaking to a roomful of eager listeners.... "listen to my great IPO tip story" lol...


DID anyone ever buy Netscape in 1995?

DAREN
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Old 12-26-2003, 08:53 PM
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Netscape, Earthlink and Amazon in the late 90's
All 3 did WONDERFUL for me. None were IPO's..
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Old 12-27-2003, 08:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unclefussy
Netscape, Earthlink and Amazon in the late 90's
All 3 did WONDERFUL for me. None were IPO's..

what's the name of your BROKER? lol



DAREN ;-}
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Old 12-27-2003, 07:45 PM
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I have not seen the Fortune article. But did the article actually quote Google saying that they are actually having an IPO?, or is it a rehash of all the speculation making it sound as a fact. (Funny thing the internet - all the specualtion about an IPO in one place, becomes a fact in another place .... bit like SEO :-)

I have asked this before and as far as I can tell there is nothing more than an article quoting Sergey saying that they will consider it (or something like that). Everthing else I can find is nothing more than specualtion that they could or should or what would happen if they did... I stand to be corrected if there is something concrete.

BTW - I think the should have one and they probably are.

CBP
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Old 12-27-2003, 11:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbp
I have not seen the Fortune article. But did the article actually quote Google saying that they are actually having an IPO?, or is it a rehash of all the speculation making it sound as a fact.
CBP
i hear what you are saying, but evidently FORTUNE has really done their research, interviewing hundreds, etc.....this time....

and the crux of the article seems to hang on the fact that in April of 2004 Google will be required by the SEC to commence publishing its financials....so the thinking is that why not capitalize on the sudden loss of secrecy and just "go with it" etc....

DAREN ;-}
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Old 01-02-2004, 09:57 AM
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Daren: I found this New York Times article - thought you might like to read it.

Have a great day
Russell
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