FInaly an end to the primitivism and terror.
Congratulations United States of America, congratulation world!

Time to remove my sig, I hope it contributed a drop.

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Impossible? You just underestimate the time.

Finally the result is out and the Feng Shui Site - About Feng Shui - Basic Art of learning Fengshui For Beginners With Wind & Water prediction on the 3rd November 2008 is true about Obama winning the election.

It is a great day for Americans to celebrate. Wondering if it will be declared as a Holidays for the Americans.

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He and his advisors will have an extremely hard job ahead of them and some commentators say that he has nearly an inhuman task to live up to his expectations.

There are some fundamental imbalances that have to be restored:

1. The budget. He has promised tax cuts for many people. Robert Shapiro, one of his close economic advisors. "This is not the correct time for traditional fiscal stimulus". Hm. Traditionally, government spending is more expansive than tax cuts. Even a balanced budget increase is expansive according to Nobel prize winner Trygve Haavelmo, my former teacher at the University of Oslo that formulated "the balanced budget theorem". Even if president Hoover wa accused for worsening the crisis in the 1930's with his fiscal policy Haavlemo also teached us to ask the question whether the alternative would be any better.
   
2. The payment (current account).
3. Main street / Wall street.
4. Infrastructure. Roads / railroads. Better protection against hurricanes in the Gulf and fires in California.

<side note>
I am not an Indian, nor a socialist nor a communist, but a radical social democrat that had long hair in my youth

Personally, I go for Hillary in 2012 / 16 or a daughter / son ... daughter / son of Sitting Bull

The opening on Wall Street is lower to day and it is still a bear market.
</side note>

Is Hillary's program on universal healthcare and social security better than Obama's?? Hint for a job to her.

Generally, it is too early to know the future.

Congratulation USA some respect already restored.

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I wrote Indian. Excuse me.

Some thoughts while driving:

1. What is so special with Barak Obama?
2. It has also been said that Bill Clinton was "the first black" president of the USA if it is the color of his skin.
3. As an economist, I am still uncertain about his economic policy, though hopefull lightyears better than Bushes's.
4. And didn't George Bush pave the way with Colin Powell - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and Condoleezza Rice - Wikipedia, the free ?encyclopedia
5. Some commentators talk about a silent revolution. May be Hillary would have been a greater revolution.
6. Hopefully his foreign policy is better than her's would have been.

But again, greetings Barak Obama. Hope that you rebuild USA's standing in the world and the American economy.

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Good will.

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Impossible? You just underestimate the time.

OK. I buy that.

Some commentators call him an iron hand with a velvet glove.

That may be a necessity in a crual world.

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He's magnetic. He's inherently likable. He is living proof that 'America is conceived in liberty, dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.' (Lincoln at Gettysburg).

I disagree because Clinton bears the traditional 'WASP' last name. The only exception to that rule was Kennedy. This election shattered that paradigm both in its result and in its process. So, if you're a woman (Clinton/Palin), an Hispanic from NM (Richardson), a Mormon from Mass (Romney), an Italian Catholic from NY (Giuliani) - those tags aren't the reason for a failed candidacy.

That is important because it reflects the reality that most of us aren't WASPS anymore. So, when I grew up, I thought being a Catholic with a three-sylabic last name with a funky vowel on the end of it precluded me from being the President. (I wasn't shattered by this, I was more interested in playing ball of course), but now I know, my son OR daughter COULD be the President.

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Don't worry about it....there will be those investors who, fearing an increase in the long term capital gains rate (or short term rate which is essentially the same rate you would pay for ordinary income), will sell an asset to lock in the gain at the 'old rate'

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I agree to that, but see my above post. His greatest contribution so long is IMO, as an outsider, that he has inspired more people, especially younger to participate in politics. That is extremely important for democracy.

Fine words. History can not be turned back, but ask a native American what (s)he feels. Christians, and we judge people by skin and sex. We are primates that have not understood that we all live in a big space ship that have big problems. Hopefully we understand that before it is too late. Note: Forces in the market (a measure of human activity and mass psychology) and nature generally are non-linear. We often think and project linearly, that can be a very big mistake.


From january he and any other president will be judged on results and not on words. I think Obama is good to pick the right people. That may be a great advantage to him.

But what about foreign policy, especially Russia? As far as I have understood he want's to exclude Russia from G8 and other international organizations. Is that likeable? Is that good will? Does it depend on who you look into the eyes? Fight Russia and you are knocking your hand into a duvet that in a while returns with a naked steel hand. (P.S. Stalin was Georgian). Why do man always need an enemy? Because (s)he has problems her/himself? The collected works of Russian classical writers (Dostoevsky as a minimum) should be obligatory reading for any American presidental candidate and / or his staff. Russia now placing out their rockets in Kaliningrad to neutralize NATO's. That should be no problem since ours are aimed at other nations and they are far away from US soil. But if ours are used, Russia has a net surplus I personally don't fear them, but other nations and younger people may.
Note: I am a true 68 generation. I don't know if that has any meaning in the USA. I don't judge people by sex, skin and words but by results. Those results are available in 20012 / 20016.


To sum up

1. I agree that he is likeable to many people. I am too old to be blended by charisma.
2. He is knowledgeable (not always intelligent IMO - see above regarding Russia).
3. Hopefully he is good to pick the correct staff. The pick of Joe Biden was good IMO.
4. His foreign policy agenda do not convince me so long.
5. His economic policy agenda do no convince me 100 %.
6. I stand by my original position that Hillary could have been better for main street than Obama.

When he meets reality, he will discover that he will not be able to deliver all the promises and that he has to prioritize strictly. That priority will be important of how he is judged in 20012 / 20016.

I wish you good luck Barak. Hopefully I have not confused you too much. I am only an ordinary fairly old Norwegian living not so far from what is called the "the peaceful ocean" and Kalingrad.

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In a normal market there are buyers on all horizons. A big problem with a market crash and a bear market is that a lot of investors change their horizon. Many of them become traders in stead of investors.

You short a stock and the company go bust. You can "buy" it back for zero dollars. Why did I not sell Lehman Brothers short?

Key word search:

dynamic yield curve

You like what you see?

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We have a major volatility problem on our hands. In a neo-classical model, an assumption is 'perfect information' which is obviously a fallacy, but in the current environment future predicitions aren't worth the paper they are printed on. How do you invest rationally in such an environment? The future cash flow projections are inherently unreliable, future costs (ie. oil) are unreliable, even the internal discount rate that you would use to discount those cash flows is unreliable.....

So, yes, your point about the 'horizon changing' is well taken. In my opinion, people will have a much shorter horizon.

Ah, but what do you do if you're GM? How many cars are you going to sell next October 2009?

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According to some analysts it is a traders market. Whether it is rational or not is another question. There is no room for hope in the market. Only hard work and understanding Mr Markets mood.

Try the geometric average. It is more robust to statistical outliers than the aritmetic.

There are at least three hypothesis about the free market.

1. The traditional efficient.
2. The coherent.
   
   Another important link (Tonis Vaga):
   Profiting from Chaos: Using Chaos ... - Google Book Search
3. The fractal

Reduced investment horizon in fast corrective markets is an essential element in the last two. Understanding that is important for long run gains.

Norwegian Think can be a main competitor if GM is too late to turn around.

If I, were the boss of GM, I would start by firing some (sub)bosses that were too late to adapt.

Oh Lord wan't you buy a Mercedes Benz.

I think Nobel prize winner Al Gore would say that you should think twize.

Added later: Mr Market may have done the job this time too.

GM announces announces massive losses and jo cut of 20 %.

Related: GM warns of cash crunch, appeals for bailout

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