With the economy in the state that it is in, 'some' Democrats want the environment to take a back seat; Obama is not one of them, but frankly I don't think his proposals are particularly bold and they call for a 'cap & trade' system

__________________

Do you have a link?

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Party tussle ensnares Obama's global warming goals - Yahoo! News

WASHINGTON – Democrats are fighting over control of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the outcome could affect President-elect Obama's efforts to limit the heat-trapping gases blamed for global warming.
Obama has said he wants to act quickly on climate change. But bipartisan support could be tested if liberal California Rep. Henry Waxman unseats the chairman, Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich. The committee's top Democrat for 28 years, Dingell is an ally of important of automakers and electric utilities.
The committee will take the lead on legislation to cap greenhouse gases and establish a multibillion-dollar market in carbon dioxide. Companies would buy and sell the right to pollute.

{The Article continues, emphasis supplied}

An ancillary article:
Obama to Act Quickly on Global Warming in 2009 - Yahoo! News

__________________

The previous experience with cap & trade was with acid rain in the 1990s. I guess its better than nothing, but its not a comprehensive solution. Acid Rain has been mitigated, but not eliminated.

Cap & Trade is a good short term solution to get the market moving towards a non-polluting future. It gives an incentive to figure out ways to stop polluting. But over the course of time, the 'cap' needs to be lowered....Many companies will often employ very simple technologies at first, that they really should've employed simply on a 'good neighbor' basis (like scrubbers or filters)...Its a start....Ultimately we're going to be needing electric cars and CO2 free electricity. Both industries are in their infancy.

__________________

And while GM is lobbying for the bailout, there are those who are against as well. This is a copy and paste from an e-mail from Set America Free (an organization that I kind've like). I would say that their e-mail borders on 'pandering':

The CEOs of the big three automakers flew to the nation's capital yesterday in private luxurious jets to make their case to Washington that the auto industry is running out of cash and needs $25 billion in taxpayer money to avoid bankruptcy.

The CEOs of GM, Ford and Chrysler may have told Congress that they will likely go out of business without a bailout yet that has not stopped them from traveling in style, not even First Class is good enough.

All three CEOs - Rick Wagoner of GM, Alan Mulally of Ford, and Robert Nardelli of Chrysler - exercised their perks Tuesday by flying in corporate jets to DC. Wagoner flew in GM's $36 million luxury aircraft to tell members of Congress that the company is burning through cash, asking for $10-12 billion for GM alone.

"We want to continue the vital role we've played for Americans for the past 100 years, but we can't do it alone," Wagoner told the Senate Banking Committee.

While Wagoner testified, his G4 private jet was parked at Dulles airport. It is one of eight luxury jets in the GM fleet that continues to ferry executives around the world despite the company's dire financial straits.

"This is a slap in the face of taxpayers," said Tom Schatz, President of Citizens Against Government Waste. "To come to Washington on a corporate jet, and asking for a hand out is outrageous."

Wagoner's private jet trip to Washington cost his ailing company an estimated $20,000 roundtrip. In comparison, seats on Northwest Airlines flight 2364 from Detroit to Washington were going online for $288 coach and $837 first class. After the hearing, Wagoner declined to answer questions about his travel.

Ford CEO Mulally's corporate jet is a perk included for both he and his wife as part of his employment contract along with a $28 million salary last year. Mulally actually lives in Seattle, not Detroit. The company jet takes him home and back on weekends.

I am reminded of Nero and violins. That $36 million GM private jet is the cost of making 360,000 cars gasoline-ethanol-methanol flexible right there (it's a $100 cost per car,) breaking oil's monopoly in the transportation sector through fuel choice. And GM has 8 such jets. Add up the Ford and Chrysler plane fleets and we're talking the cost of making several million cars gasoline-ethanol-methanol flex fuel vehicles. Given that taxpayer money is on the table here, the trade would seem only fair.

I for one don't appreciate having taxpayer money be used to pay for someone's private jet and 8 digit salary. If the CEOs of these auto companies were earning money for their firms, their shareholders could have decided what's appropriate and if their shareholders thought that private jets are worth the return and increase profits, then fine. But given that it is our money they are asking for, our pocket they want handouts from, that's quite a different story.

__________________

I saw that story on Cnn. Arrogance is the correct word.

Once again I remind you of this famous cite:

"Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper. To trace the history of the most prominent of these delusions is the object of the present pages. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

- Charles MacKay, 1841

..."while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."





There are tendencies here too, but not on your scale. Some of these dinosaurs are simply not fit to the digital and green economy. There are too many

• Inefficient financial institutions.
• Inefficient car companies.
• Inefficient air companies.
• Polluting solutions.
• Arrogant CEO's without contact with the real world.
• Fantasy pays (based on derivative arrangements that reward excessive risk taking).

On the yesterday news:

1. FED has adjusted the GDP predictions down. US will most likely be in a recession next year. What about the revised data for 3 and 4 quarter 2008? IMO they can show negative growth when they are published in 2009.
2. Driven by lower energy prices, your CPI fell by 1 % in october, the largest one month fall in more than 60 years.
3. Now Cnn are talking about deflation, again no surprise for one that have regularily read articles from Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle
4. If inflation is pest, deflation is cholera. Deflation (most often) goes hand in hand with depression, and it is something that the government may fear more than inflation. Deflation delay purchases (waiting for lower prices) and reduces producers incentives to produce, in other words synonymous with depression.
5. In addtion you will experience increased competition from the socalled BRIC countries
   - Brasil
   - Russia
   - India
   - China
   
   whose companies can survive on a lower page level. Important in a digital economy (internet based) where prices are pressed because of the fierce competition and technology spread in minutes across the globe. There will be an equalization of input prices in the digital part of the ecoinomy: http://www.webproworld.com/breakroom...tml#post398895
6. Energy and food prices. If you remember, I told you that I was not surprised if the price of oil fell as low as USD 1 (in an environment of defaltionary depression). South Kore have leased enormous land areas on Madagascar with the intention of producing food. Rich oil producing countries in the Middle East are looking for similar solutions in Ethiopia and Sudan. These countries may have excessive land areas, so a lease of land can stimulate their own economy. But it will definitely put a downward pressure on food prices. A low oil price will be very bad for Norway and our production costs are much higher than elswhere. Planned drilling projects in new areas are already stopped / delayed here.

The new with a deflationary depression is that the bill you hold in your hand or have under your bed increases in value. There are no strong incentive to use it unless you have too.


So what is the best solution?:

• A gigantic global coordinated fiscal stimulus package (that may not solve the structural problems with too many dinousaurs and an economy that can not adapt fast enough to the green and digital revolution). There is not much more to cut on interest rates in the world's two biggest economies.
• Laissez faire as some ultra market liberalists propose. A lot of people have to live in tent.
• A mixed solution. Some companies have to die.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

And I agree. If you had said this in July, I would've said you were crazy, I was more in fear of stagflation.

'global coordinated' -hehehehehe and that is a sarcastic hehehehehe....Let's see if we can coordinate 'nationally'

__________________

The one thing that I don't understand is why the sudden 'resurgence' of the US Dollar vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar (CAD was better than parity, now 1.25:1), UK Pound (was 2:1 now 1.49:1) and Euro (was 1.60:1 now 1.20:1) (approx)......What are your thoughts on this?

__________________

I sometimes admire you Americans. You are used to turbo capitalism and large fluctuations (economic cycles). The end result may be a larger average level. That is no comfort for those that have to leave their house and live in a tent or a big car (for a time).

Some of your leaders and ultra lobbyists also reminds me of Louis XV of France

"After me, the flood" ("Après moi, le déluge").

In Norwegian.

"After me comes the flood of sin = Etter meg kommer syndfloden".

It would not have been accepted in Europe.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

'When the Going gets Tough, the Tough get going!' - Individually you have little control over events. Americans drive to the poor house, before we start weeping for ourselves, let's take a moment to reflect on true poverty that we see in Zimbabwe and Haiti.....I've been poor in the US; at least here 90% of success is simply showing up. You have to remain positive; look at the bright side.

__________________

There are a lot of theories on exchange rates:

1. Dornbush's overshooting theory.
2. The purchasing power parity theory.
3. Random walk.
4. The exchange rate as the outcome of a high dimensional system like temperature in a point on the earth.

When I worked in the central bank of Norway, I experienced in chronological order the following Governors:

1. Erik Brofoss. (He was a pensionist and consultant when I was there).
2. Knut Getz Wold (I had the honor of correcting his last yearly speech).
3. Hermod Skånland. (Was sometimes called into his office with economic statistics etc. - I took a personal initiative to build Norway's first professional economic databank).
4. Torstein Moland.
5. Kjell Storvik.
6. Svein Gjedrem. (He was member of a reference group when I worked on problems related to our balance of payment). I had left the Bank when he became Governor.

Now. To the topic.

I never forget a seminar with Erik Brofoss. He said:

• The currency rate of a country is power. The oil producing countries in the Middle East will never leave the USD. I am personally, not so sure any longer. What about the Chinese yuan in 1025?
• 1 Chinese yuan = 0.146323 U.S. dollars. Watch that parity closely in the coming years.
• Knut Getz Wold said: Power is: "Good advice." I like that term better, but have to admit that Brofoss have been correct for about 30 years now.

IMO, you have to decide on time horizon:

1. Short term. Psychological. News. External events. USD safe haven (the distance to Europe is shorter) when there are conflicts in the Middle East as now in Somalia, Iraq etc.
2. Medium term. Relative interest, growth and inflation rates. Position of the economic cycle. The market may have discounted that the adjustment or restructuring of your economy leads that of other nations.
3. Long term. Relative political, financial stability, sustainable growth without inflation and prosperity.
4. Ultra long cycles and waves like the Elliott Wave principle / fractal. In sum expressed as: Global determinism and local randomness. Source: "Default" scroll down to my name or page search (CTRL + F) for: determinism. A non stochastic fractal is equivalent to determinism. The EWI fractal is deterministic, but it relies on a central assumption. The structure is related to free markets. The more regulated the market is (e.g. forbidding short selling) the less relevant is the principle. So it will not be valid in a command economy. The socialization of losses and privatization of profits introduces asymmetry that may break the EWI principle. Ultra Ellioticians will say that you can not fight Mr. Market and in the end he is the winner. Then regarding the DJIA (whether this correction is an expanded flat or not - see above) you have to wait for the market tsunami to reach the bottom a place between the 1929 top and 1932 bottom. General deflation increases the probability of that outcome.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Ultimately they will desire the currency that gets them what they want in return for the oil.

I always like going the other way, more descriptive to me: 1USD = 6.83972 Chinese Yuan

The question is when is China going to float the currency because even at 6.83 I think its undervalued. If I were a currency speculator I would bet on an increase in the Yuan (but you really can't do it)...I think a couple of years ago they had a 'peg' at 8.13 (+/-) and then they moved to a 'basket of currencies'

__________________

http://www.webproworld.com/breakroom...tml#post397151

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

I still wasn't convinced in October that we weren't in a stagflation cycle. The US did the tax rebate stimulus (a demand hit) and inflation, by July, seemed to be out of control.

Things are swinging so wildly, its crazy!

__________________

You are American and I am Norwegian and none of us finish(ed) yet, even if the Finish minster of finance tops the Financial Times rating as best minister.

So should we look closer to the Finish solution?

I agree and I forgot a very important argument in the medium term exchange rate function specified informally above:

• Relative currency reserves.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Its not that the USD must come first. Good example
1JPY=0.0105158 USD (I mean that is annoying just to look at)
1USD=95.0598JPY (immediately I know yen is strong, since 1 dollar buys less than 100 yen)

but same holds true for Euro and Pound. I prefer to see
1EUR=1.25085USD
1GBP=1.48001

For me its just sooo much easier to do the math in my head that way.

__________________

Recommended book:

Kevin B. Connolly: "Buying and Selling Volatility".

The more the market fluctuates, the more you earn.

Entrance is very important.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

One of my favorite currency rate sites: XE - The World's Favorite Currency and Foreign Exchange Site

1.00 GBP = 10.5946 NOK today.

Did you know that in the 1930's

1.00 GBP was worth more than 30 NOK

Our currency is strongly related to the oil price, another factor, that show how complex the currency function may be.

A good service



Euro Exchange Rate Graph - US Dollar - Historical Exchange Rates

You also find the Inverted rate there.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Yes, it is good, that is where I had pulled the earlier rates from.

What would be interesting to see is a regression between the peak oil price in July and the value of the Norwegian Kroner (Today) vis-a-vis the USD and EUR....see what kind of correlation you get...

__________________

I have not really read any of the previous post. . Just the thread title.

I merely popped in to say,
From where I sit the USA is sitting on a sinking log and holding a bucket. Bail out?

Nobody can tell me that this absurd situation was not predictable some two years ago . . All the 'experts' are on the inside of their own bubbles and unable to see past their own sphere of intelligence. . . Nobody with a holistic view has ever got as much as a look in, because they "do not understand the concept of how money works".

Serves the world right... worse to come!

__________________

That is the problem when you dive into a thread, but welcome to the thread, Tubby. IMO it is also an important topic, but counting is valued higher in the break room.


Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Economic or military reality?

GM is on the verge of bankrupt if it is not bailed out:

1. Saab Automobile AB, better known as Saab, is a Swedish car manufacturer and currently a wholly-owned subsidiary of General Motors.
2. Wilkinson also said that Saab, a Swedish brand acquired by GM, is also "completely integrated into GM's global operations," and that "any talks about selling any of the brands are purely speculative."
3. UPDATE: Norway Picks Lockheed Fighter Over Saab's Gripen
4. Some reasons:
   
   - Norway didn't mention the price tag, but said the JSF jets are 6 billion Norwegian kronor less expensive than the Gripen planes.
   - Norway said the JSF planes are the only ones that meet operational standards set by Norway's government for the country's future military air force.
   
   That is the official version.
5. The final question. How is the situation for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) in these difficult times?
6. Mr. Market is strong.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Hi Kgun, I saw the thread. . I just thought I might pop in. . It seems I spent a bit of time over the last few months watching Bloomberg, and other financial tv programs with my mouth wide open .

Aussie dollar value is making my website more effective.
Living in a small Outback town with a population of single numbers that has a mining population of around a 100 working within 30 miles, I was recently asked. " Now that they have all gone (laid off) how will that effect you?"
I simply said I knew they would be gone 12 months ago . .

There is a lot of pain heading towards the worlds little people. . I am a little person. Nobody likes to hear someone with no influence and no history or great reputation saying I told you so. . But there are influential people that could see this coming. . and sat back. (self interest - kennel blindness - could not give a F#%&

Somebody should represent the ANGER. . I feel somebody should step up to this thread and say on behalf of honest hard working people that have made the long hard toll for many many years . . just to get their legs chopped of by Bastards that never had any thing better to dream of that their own self gratification. .

This might well look like an intellectual problem, The intellectual arguments are on at least 20 channels on my TV.

What about the poor Bastards that are going to get shafted . . losing your job. house, taking your kids out of school. . Is a raw primitive physical problem.

__________________

Tubby. I can tell you a very important difference between a doctor and an economist.

• People listen to the doctor.
• An economist that sees what is (may be) coming and tells what he sees. Nobody listen to him. He is ignored since he may recommend putting your money in a safe bank. That does not bring comission to the company you are working for. The company get good comission on selling non-transparent financial instruments that you need a degree on the master level in mathematics to understand. CEO's taking excessive corporate risk are also rewarded. Some people should be put to jail in my view. But these women and men have white collars.

I have an academic degree in Economics with a specialization in mathematical finace on the Dr. Scientlevel. In addtion I have written a master thesis in mathematical finance about nonlinear, fractal and chaotic structure. That should not be a disadvantage to understand these wild market fluctuations.

You know the car industry better than most of us. CEO's in these companies have been part of the same culture as described above. Now, on Cnn, they call the "big three" the "beg three". The democrates that are now in majority, say. Show us a plan before we can show you the money. So long they have not been able to show a plan.

Some speculation on our Tv. We will never see any of these fighters described above. Who are our enemy? I may be naive, but why should not Georgia, Russia and Ukraine all be a member of NATO? I think I know your answer.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

I think this Elliottician - Refining the Elliott Wave Principle company operating in Perth are one of the experts on the Aussie dollar.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Well, you see that is good because your mouth needs to be wide open otherwise you wouldn't be able to swallow the s___ they're trying to feed you.

__________________

I think the US election results reflect this (at least to a certain extent). I completely agree with you, somehow these companies have taken a bedrock of the housing sector (mortgages) and turned it into a quagmire based on the false premise that home values could somehow continue to grow faster than incomes.

__________________

Well, apparently they get to pay additional taxes to fund the bailout....open your mouth wider....

__________________

And when they do go to prison, its 'Club Fed.' They have to get tougher on white collar crime. Could be a nice deterrent. Mark Cuban, insider trading.....are we getting an indictment? Nope....civil action at best. He avoided losing $750,000.00 which means the people who bought lost it (or the people who then bought from them).

Rule 10(b)5 - ENFORCE IT

We know, you like you're math and definitely yours FRACTALS - modest statement 'not be a disadvantage' - no sense being that modest, say it: you have experience and specialized knowledge to make sense of the current financial meltdown.

Well, the Democrats have to ask for a plan. If they don't, it looks like they're just handing out $25 billion, no questions asked. If the plan fails, they will be criticized for not asking difficult questions and four years from now, the Republicans will make an issue of it.

For $25 billion, I assure you, GM, Ford and Chrysler will come up with something.

The interests of Russia and the current members of NATO need to converge more. Its not impossible and its not naive. As you see a shift in the relative power of nations and blocs (think rise of China), then it begins to make more sense...

You can see this process with Germany and its relations with France and Poland. They had German tanks participating in the Bastille Day parade in France and Poland has now been included in the Schengen area. But this didn't happen in 1946 because it couldn't happen then, it took a LONG time. Same thing with Russia, the 'West' and Russia have been in opposition so long that its difficult to think in different terms. Give it another 20 years and see where you are then. The Russian emigre communities will make an impact. When I was growing up, the Soviet Union represented the 'big bad Russians' - the Soviet Union collapsed and Russian immigrants started coming. My children will grow up with their children (hopefully playing baseball of course), but my child's image of Russia will be much different than the image I had growing up.

__________________

Also of interest:

Not that the Federal government shouldn't be playing a role, but it seems that states and municipalities may be in the best position to actually implement green solutions. Garden State is the nickname for New Jersey.

NorthJersey.com: For Garden State, going green seen as a natural

For Garden State, going green seen as a natural

ATLANTIC CITY — For local officials looking to go green, products or advice are in sight everywhere these days.
From a dealer selling 100-percent electric, zero emissions, low-speed vehicles, to manufactures of environmentally friendly office furniture, to PSE&G promoting green energy programs, more green vendors than ever are trying to sell to municipal officials.
They were in particular abundance at this week's Annual League of Municipalities Conference. And they are an increasingly common sign of a statewide movement gaining momentum.
"More officials have concerns about the environment, and their constituents have concerns about the environment,'' said Brian Law, a dealer for electric Tiger Truck vehicles, who said he has noticed more interest than ever in his energy-efficient products.
Representatives from PSE&G promoted a wind project off the coast of Cape May and Atlantic counties to provide energy to 250,000 homes. The power company also shared information about financing help available to towns and businesses for solar projects.
"It's a wave of the future,'' said a PSE&G representative at the company booth.
Hundreds of municipal officials packed conference rooms to learn how to make their town more energy efficient and economically viable while protecting the environment through better land use.
"I would love for Fair Lawn to be one of the first in Bergen County to be a sustainable community,'' said the borough's Deputy Mayor Lisa Swain. "It's the only way to have a good, clean future for our kids, and economically, it's the only way to survive.''
Green leaders gave tips Thursday on how to cut costs and protect the environment by purchasing energy-efficient appliances for town hall, installing low-flow plumbing, using recycled toner cartridges when possible and reducing municipal car use.
In Ocean City, officials agreed to lease roof space for solar panels to an energy broker in exchange for less-costly power, Joseph Clark, the city's purchasing manager told some 200 municipal officials.
Encouraging residents to recycle grass clipping and leaves, Clark also told officials, could reduce waste by up to 20 percent and lower disposal fees.
Ridgewood Councilwoman Anne Zusy was eager to embrace green initiatives after listening to presenters.
"It's ridiculous not to do it,'' Zusy said. "You don't have to be a tree hugger to feel that way.''
The prominence of green vendors and programs at the league conference marked a significant shift from recent years. Highland Park Mayor Meryl Frank, a statewide leader helping towns go green, gave a presentation five years ago on such efforts.
"Fifteen people showed up,'' she said.
This year, more than 350 municipal officials were there to listen to Frank and others talk about Sustainable Jersey, a new program to provide resources and grant money for towns to go green.
"In the beginning, people were laughing at us,'' Frank said. "Now everyone wants to know how we do this and how to get on board.''
Paterson Councilman Andre Sayegh falls into the category of officials who want to know more. He said he plans to press city officials to investigate more green initiatives. He was inspired after listing to Trenton Mayor Doug Palmer talk about efforts to green the state capitol. The city saved $120,000 a year by switching to energy-efficient lights for traffic signals.
"Trenton has done it; why not Paterson?'' Sayegh said. "You'd save money. We are a cash-strapped city.''
Palmer, past president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, said green initiatives are here to stay.
"Some people think going green is a fad, like the Hula Hoop," Palmer said. "This is no fad. … it's going to be a priority for this nation for generations to come.''
"You can do this,'' he encouraged officials.
"It's not hard. It's not rocket science. It's just having a commitment and reaching out to others to do it.''

__________________

Henry Poulsen.

US Treasury, FED unveil new $800 bn bailout plan. He admits that no single instrument is strong enough to handle this crisis.

US GDP growth fell bay 0.5 percent in third quarter 2008, the biggest fall in 7 years.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Up another $100 billion....

__________________

Now, as far as I understand the Bn $800 come in addition to the Bn $700.

IMF predicts:
For the first time after WWII the industralized world will experience a decline in composite production in 2009.

EU now announces a Bn 200 fiscal stimulus package.

Norway: We will loose up tp 120 000 jobs or 5% of the employment in this crisis.

As I have understood, the intention is to bail out consumers.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Yes, I misread it at first. ANOTHER $800 billion...we're now at $1.5 trillion....

"The initiatives call for the Federal Reserve to buy up to 600 billion dollars in mortgage securities, with another 200 billion dollars allocated for asset-backed securities to help get credit to consumers."

aka - 'car loans' equipment and other loans taken to purchase a specific non-real estate asset....

__________________

When all the dust has settle. . Will the bottom fall out of the $US ?

I have a nagging feeling that this time next year the $US will be worth peanuts. . No solid thoughts, just that nagging feeling that support for the $US will crumble. .

__________________

Tubby, I dont't think so. The USA will IMO opinion come out of this crisis stonger than ever. Of the big nations, India and the United states are adapting fastest to the digital economy.

My estimate is the more than 50 per cent of the web economy and companies are US owned.


Mention one big web company from the worlds biggest economies (in alphabetical order)

1. Australia.
2. Brazil.
3. China
4. England
5. France
6. Germany
7. Italy
8. Japan (Ok Sony and similar companies, NEC)
9. Russia
10. South Korea (Ok Samsung).
11. Spain

A lot of them are far behind Singapore.

Some of the above mentioned economies has two big problems, lack of openess and bureaucracy. Mr. Market is strong.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

The early 80s recession was much worse. The difference between that one and now......people log onto yahoo.com daily and get a fresh dose of bad news.....

Anecdotally.....Northern NJ....traffic up the a___....restaurants jammed on Sundays......stores packed.....only my mother seems to have lost her job (literally), I've heard of other people getting laid off AND finding another job.....I've heard of some short sales, but no stories of a friend of a friend getting foreclosed (I am sure it happens)

In my mind the worst case scenario is the dollar will drop in value, and we'll have to forego our Chinese trinkets for next year.

__________________

The dance of the dollar. That is my speciality. I worked in the foreign exchange department of the Central Bank of Norway.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

No.

If I have to flip burgers, I will flip burgers....but while I am, I will find out how much ground chuck sells for wholesale, how many customers are walking through the door, how much they're paying in rent, etc and I'll get my own burger joint eventually. There are enough Americans like that to ensure that it just will not happen.

__________________

Quote "There are enough Americans like that to ensure that it just will not happen."

Good! I mentioned incentive a few minutes go in another thread, (the one with the porsche) but not everyone one is incentivized to a lot more than basic human needs - to avoid being cold, hungry, wet, feed the kids . . Killing dreams is not hard to do...

I still have that nagging feeling that China just took over the world. (economic world)

Kgun. said 'India and the United states are adapting fastest to the digital economy.
Digital economy? I am not sure that the digital economy is holistic enough for me..

__________________

Can you explain that in further detail Tubby?

What is the difference between a "digital" company like Google and a factory producing clothes in China?

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

With China's rise will come more influence, that is for sure. What you're seeing is a country tapping into the potential of a billion plus people. That is ultimately going to be good for everybody.

Innovation is a tremendous thing. The Chinese invented paper (among other things) and it is so ubiquitous today you don't think of it as 'Chinese' you just use it.

Prior to 1945, the hegemonic power was Britain; and for good reason. Britain innovated. But Britain only has so many people, today a little less than 60 million. When America industrialized, they're essentially copying the British model (except in lieu of colonies, America went West). The point is that Americans also had innovations. Not that the British and Germans weren't also innovating, they were, you just had a greater pool of people engaged in modern innovating.

The UK may not be as powerful politically relative to the rest of the world, but I assure you that the UK is a nicer place to live than in 1850, 1930.....

Thomas Edison doesn't invent the lightbulb in the Dark Ages; he needs all of the conditions that existed in America at the time he was inventing in order to succeed.

Right now I see China unleashing a tidal wave of human potential. I think only good things can come out of that.

__________________

You'd be surprised what is coming out of China. Dell produces computers there, Apple makes the iPhone there.

Google is great, don't get me wrong, but a lot of business in this world is just bread and butter mundane things that people use everyday.

Let's take a look at General Mills, Colgate/Palmolive, etc....they're making really mundane stuff (cereal, deodorant, soap, toothpaste, etc.)

__________________

Ultimately the one thing that constains all human beings equally is time. Every year you have a total of 8,760 hours. A nation-8760 * population. Nations obviously have different resource endowments, but the time is a constant. In theory, you can do whatever you want with those hours, but when you choose to produce, you want to get the most production per hour as possible - productivity.

This is where the digital age has had a tremendous impact, almost all of the productivity gains from 1980 to 2008 are attributable to the digital revolution. While google may best exemplify the digital age, its permeated virtually every facet of the economy.

Grocery stores scanners, cell phones, e-mail, text, accounting software, GPS...keep listing....its all designed to create synergies that free up many of those hours I noted above.

Well, its time for bed for me. Its now officially Thanksgiving here. I know you two don't celebrate it, but have a turkey sandwich for lunch anyway, its high in protein.....

__________________

"According to preliminary figures released by RCT ShopperTrak, a research firm that tracks total retail sales at more than 50,000 outlets, sales rose 3 percent to $10.6 billion on Black Friday — the day after Thanksgiving that is traditionally one of the biggest shopping days of the year. But some analysts are concerned that Black Friday's results aren't indicative of the rest of the weekend."

The market tumbles today over concerns about consumer spending. Why?

At some point, this is turning into 'stupid' news.

__________________

The USA now officially in a recession according to NBER. There also seems to be problems for the big three, exept perhaps Ford.

Note there is new (free for members?) Bob Prechter's November 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist

with the heading.

More Evidence of a Grand Supercycle Turn

Learn what has led us to this point – and with that knowledge, you can harness the power of deflation to your advantage.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

quote.
"Learn How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market
Attend EWI's Live, Intensive Elliott Wave Trading Course" ?

You have to be joking Kgun.

__________________

He is an Elliotician. He's pointing to: "More Evidence of a Grand Supercycle Turn" but you have to see them hawking the course first.

I know you don't like to follow external links, but you can look at Elliot Wave Principle on the wikipedia.

When he says 'Grand Supercycle Turn' - its similar to discussing flooding and referring to the '100 year flood'

I tend to dismiss the concept of a Grand Supercycle inasmuch as the length of a cycle exceeds the span of a typical human being. Psychology of the markets aside, the value of these stock indices are essentially a mirror of the sum of human economic activity represented by those stocks. Over the course of time, the actors change (people die and are replaced by the next genereation), technology changes (so instead of quills and ink pots, we have HP Printers and ink jets), inputs change, even national boundaries have changed.

__________________

Note there can be many cyclical bull markets in a secular bear.

I have always said that those that understand bear markets will outperform those that only understand bull markets.

1. The best investor reinvent, adapt and invest in bear markets (or corrections).
2. Warren Buffett often called the world's best investor love bear markets. He finds few good investment objects in bull markets.
3. A picture: You want to climb a mountain, read invest and liquidate the investment with maximum return, near the top of the mountain. Where is it best to start, close to the bootom of the vally or close to the top of the mountain? Even if that is so simple that a 10 year girl / boy will understand it, most professional advisors will not recommend it to you. Most people invest when champagne float in the street and not after blood floated and there is silence (the bad news are not ticking in any longer). You shall invest when everybody exept you and those that understand this simple principle hate the market. Cash is King near the market top (of the mountain) and stocks are King at the bottom (of the vally).
4. If you ever read an investment book, I can not recommend a better than "Benjamin Graham's: The intelligent investor". His simple message is that you don't need to be intelligent to make good investments.
   
   In that book he recommends that you can set your investments on autopilot:
   
   - Find a measure of valuation of the market you want to invest in. The more overvalued the market is, the more you invest in bonds and cash instruments (e.g. 75 % and 90 % with extreme overvaluation). Invest the rest in a solid index fund (stocks) for that market.
   - When the measure is neutral invest 50 / 50.
   - When the market is undervalued, invest more in the index fund (stocks) and less in bonds and cash instruments. With extreme undervalution, invest more in stocks.
   
   The Elliott wave principle is one of many methods to use to estimate the market valuation. A very simple measure is a moving average of the market index. Use different lengths. The longer your horizon, the longer the average. Geometric averages may be better than arithmetic. The market is overvalued when the index is over the average (closer to the top of the mountain) and undervalued when the inded is below the average (closer to the bottom of the valley).

The index I follow closest is the Dow Jones (the American blue chip) index.

Sist oppdatert 11.08.2007 (oppdateres ikke regelmessig). =
Last updated august 11 2007 (is not updated regularily).

Heading:

Befinner vi oss på kanten av stupet? Metoder: les mer her! =
Are we close to the edge? Methods: Read more here!

MultiFinansIT

That is facts and not ad. You will never get this advice again here at WPW.

Trading in fast moving bear markets, I will not reccomend that, since it requires a special psyche, disiplin and good money mangement. IMO only about 10 per cent or less make money on trading. It is hard work. Note that one wrong decision can take you out of the market for ever. If you are a trader, you must learn to love small losses and hate big ones. You have to know everything about risk / reward before you set your position. Timing your entrance and exit is also extremely important. You have to find a profitable trading system and stick to that.

P.S. Look at the DJIA august 11 2007. I think you had a little more than one month to get out.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Yes. I have come across The Elliot Wave principle. It is probably ideal for a "trading Course"

Maybe I should post Tubbys 'Political Pendulum theory' That forecasts the collapse of US Capitalism as a direct result of the falling of the Berlin wall and other events.. It could be interesting. . But basically It is all crap. (but amusing to play with)

__________________

"It's not based on any particular data point, we just wanted to choose a really large number."
-- Treasury Department spokeswoman explaining how the $700 billion number was chosen for the initial bailout, quoted on Forbes.com, Sept. 23

Nice!

__________________