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  #101 (permalink)  
Old 11-04-2008, 12:53 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
I'm calling it right now. There WILL be positive GDP growth for the fourth quarter.
In my opinion your probability of being correct increases if Obama (the democrats) wins the election.

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Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
Fair enough. I get what you're driving at though....

I don't like to use socialism in that context only because you're collectively subsidizing the excesses of capitalism (something most socialists would not desire to subsidize)
"Financial socialism" would have been a better term.

Mr Market is forward looking, so you may find strong signals of the outcome of the election in the http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html or the NASDAQ-100 Pre-Market Indicator and NASDAQ-100 Pre-Market Heatmap
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  #102 (permalink)  
Old 11-04-2008, 01:05 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Index ..... Value ........ Change ..... Open ............High ........ Low .......... Time .....

DJIA ..... 9,330.00 .......-2.00 ........9,330.00 .......9,332.00 ....9,294.00..... 23.46

S&P 500.. 968.80 ........ -0.70 ..........969.20 .........971.00 ......964.10....... 23.46

NAS 100.. 1341.00 ....... -0.50 ........1342.00 .......1344.00 .....1334.75...... 23.47


(Time 00.11 - 00.14 - 00.02 respectively -- All the above three are weakly green.)

Index ............... Value ........ Change ..... Open ............High ........ Low .......... Time .....

Nikkei 225 ..... 9090.00 ........ 640 ........ 8,390.00 ......9,110.00 .... 8,320.00..... 00.07

Hang Seng ... 14,321.00 ....... 144 ........14,150.00..... 14,429.00 ... 13,736.00... 23.29


So watch / follow this link.

Bloomberg.com: Futures

Strong green (+) means Obama in my opinion.

Latest news: Australia Cuts Key Interest Rate by 75 Basis Points

"Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected three quarters of a percentage point, the third reduction in as many months, amid evidence global financial turmoil is buffeting the economy".

Last edited by kgun; 11-04-2008 at 02:03 AM.
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  #103 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2008, 09:36 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

So Mr. Market was correct. The "futures" grew stronger during the day and the indices ended the day:
  1. DJIA +3.28 %.
  2. S&P 500 + 4.08%
  3. Nasdaq + 3.12%

Last edited by kgun; 11-05-2008 at 09:41 AM.
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  #104 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2008, 05:39 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Well, let's keep our fingers crossed!
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  #105 (permalink)  
Old 11-07-2008, 03:01 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Some updates:
  1. Fredrik Reinfeldt left the meeting on that reason: Going from no regulation to "too" much state and regulation. Overshooting / reaction is a well established fact in economics. As an economist drilled in the Scandianvian mixed economy model, I may agree. Read more: Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt told the Swedish news agency Direkt before the meeting that the plan "over-regulates and is based on the wrong assumptions".
  2. The Bank of England's rate setting body the MPC surprised many with a 1.5% reduction to the base rate, bringing it down to 3% due to growing concerns over the downturn in the global economy, and UK mortgage market.
  3. European central banks cut their interest rates dramatically Thursday, but most of them are still higher than the Federal Reserve's 1 percent target rate.
  4. U.S. Economy: Jobless Rate Climbs to 14-Year High.
  5. US companies slash 240 000 jobs in October.

Last edited by kgun; 11-07-2008 at 03:11 PM.
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  #106 (permalink)  
Old 11-10-2008, 07:16 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

The bailout continues:
  1. China announced a 586 Bn stimulus plan.
  2. AIG may have gotten a $150 billion deal Monday, but that's just a small fraction of the nearly $3 trillion in financial rescue programs the government has created to stabilize the U.S. economy.
Two commentators on our news:
  1. This is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.
  2. What we see is only the top of the iceberg. Something I have personally claimed for weeks.
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  #107 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2008, 02:22 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

From Scandinavia:
  1. Sweden want to sell carnegie - now controlled by the government - whole. Hopefully without loss for tax payers.
  2. Volvo fires 900 additional. They have already fired thousands. That hurts for a big company in a small country.
  3. Norwegian investors will sue banks for selling structured instruments that has not been understood neither by the advisors nor the clients.
  4. Prime minister Gordon Brown and our prime minister Jens Stoltenberg meet today. They want a global SEC and an institute for ethical leader payment. Today extreme shortness that result in too high risk is rewarded. In short high risk taking is awarded. Gordon Brown: The current financial crisis is a golden opportuinty to reorganize the global financial system. Monetary and fiscal policy cooperation across the world is needed. Argument for a global government? Reminds me of a sinking ship where the crew are desperatly repairing the leakages on the first class. Reread the whole thread and you may understand why.
  5. Backward looking is also normal in great corrections. The next crisis will be different.

Last edited by kgun; 11-11-2008 at 02:44 PM.
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  #108 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2008, 02:46 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Argument for a global government?
Astute, as usual. Global problems naturally call for global solutions. Your analogy to a ship is well taken, not only is the ship sinking, but it has more than one captain.

In the future, this represents the single largest threat to national sovereignity. Whereas in the past it was military conquest, the future may well see a 'surrender' couched in terms of a legal delegation of authority to global entities.

For larger countries, this is a concern, for smaller countries its even a greater concern inasmuch as their national individuality will dissolve like a sugar cube in a cup of coffee.

In the US, treaties are the supreme law of the land. Treaties can trump even the US Constitution. It is of concern because the US government's powers are enumerated in the Constitution, specifically delegated by the people of the United States. What happens if the US enters a Treaty which delegates power to an international agency.....problem....

Check out the debate on the Bricker Amendment:
Bricker Amendment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This isn't semantics either:
Justices Rebuff Bush and World Court - washingtonpost.com
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  #109 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2008, 05:02 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
Astute, as usual. Global problems naturally call for global solutions. Your analogy to a ship is well taken, not only is the ship sinking, but it has more than one captain.
But only one captain on this ship USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) is the tenth and last Nimitz class supercarrier of the United States Navy. How much did they cost?

The danger with such "toys" is that there is a tendency to use / test them, like the rocket shield in Eastern Europe. It has its own logic and dynamics. Now Napoleon and Hitler have been on a visit to Russia. Don't look at the army that go in. Look at the army that returns.

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In the future, this represents the single largest threat to national sovereignity. Whereas in the past it was military conquest, the future may well see a 'surrender' couched in terms of a legal delegation of authority to global entities.
Mr. Market is as I have told repeatedly, the worst dictator you will ever meet.


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For larger countries, this is a concern, for smaller countries its even a greater concern inasmuch as their national individuality will dissolve like a sugar cube in a cup of coffee.


Yes, there are at least three countries that can close their borders. In alphabetical order:
  • China.
  • Russia.
  • USA
Norway, with about 50 % openenss will sink (are sinking) with the big ship (the global economy).

Last edited by kgun; 11-11-2008 at 07:39 PM.
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  #110 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2008, 08:27 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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But only one captain on this ship USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) is the tenth and last Nimitz class supercarrier of the United States Navy. How much did they cost?
You really dislike the Eastern European missile defense initiative. That much is clear. NATO was founded to counter the 'potential' for Soviet aggresion against Western Europe. I am sure that if you looked at the balance of forces in say, 1955, you would see a fair number of Russian built tanks. I am sure all NATO armies had PLENTY of anti-tank weapons/canons, etc.

Now of course, in 1990, things change, NATO expands eastwards. Russia is relatively weaker inasmuch as it has lost the Soviet Union itself and many members of the Warsaw Pact to NATO. Nevertheless, NATO still remains the primary alliance to counter a 'potential' Russian aggresion and hopefully to maintain order in places like the Balkans.

As much as I would say that the US really does not need to remain a full fledged member of NATO since it is clear to me that the current NATO members have the ability and wherewithal to defend themselves; the US is, in fact, a member, and so is Poland. If Russia remains the primary threat that NATO is intended to thwart (and if it isn't, then NATO is no longer required at all), it seems to me that building defenses against missiles is reasonable since the Russians, in point of fact, do possess missiles.

This is precisely what militaries do, they look at the other side and develop weapons that counter their weapons and create weapons to hopefully exploit a perceived weakness. The US withdrew from the ABM Treaty in 2002. As a sovereign nation, it has every right to do so.

As far as the Navy is concerned, the Navy is paramount in American strategic thinking. You can look at Norway's position on the map and I can tell you right now how Norway's forces would be utilized if NATO were invoked. You would be attempting to bottle up the Russian fleet in the Arctic and the Baltic. The US currently has important treaty committments to NATO and South Korea, but at the end of the day, the forces there are insufficient in themselves to actually thwart an invasion (by themselves). The strategy hinges on France/Germany/UK to essentially repel the invasion and, if need be, to have the oceans open to bring US reinforcements (if needed). Essentially the same is true in South Korea. If the Navy doesn't control the ocean, the reinforcements aren't coming.
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  #111 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2008, 08:42 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
You really dislike the Eastern European missile defense initiative.
I may wrongly regard it is offensive. You have seen the Russian response.

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Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
As far as the Navy is concerned, the Navy is paramount in American strategic thinking. You can look at Norway's position on the map and I can tell you right now how Norway's forces would be utilized if NATO were invoked.
Then why retreat from "the worlds largest unsinkable battle ship, Iceland?" United States Naval Air Station Keflavik (NASKEF) is a former NATO facility at Keflavík International

In my opinion status quo and predictability is better than some form of change

My personal observation. I may be wrong, a worsening relationship between Russia and Western Europe / USA after the missile initiative.

Yes, Poland is a member of NATO. Isn't that enough?

Last edited by kgun; 11-11-2008 at 08:56 PM.
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  #112 (permalink)  
Old 11-11-2008, 10:27 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by kgun View Post
I may wrongly regard it is offensive. You have seen the Russian response.


Then why retreat from "the worlds largest unsinkable battle ship, Iceland?" United States Naval Air Station Keflavik (NASKEF) is a former NATO facility at Keflavík International

In my opinion status quo and predictability is better than some form of change

My personal observation. I may be wrong, a worsening relationship between Russia and Western Europe / USA after the missile initiative.

Yes, Poland is a member of NATO. Isn't that enough?
The strategic objective of NATO is to protect its members. How you accomplish that objective up to generals and politicians. My point is that the missile system at least seems rationally related to the objective of the alliance. If you think withdrawing an airbase from Iceland isn't in the best interest of the alliance, perhaps you are correct.....Whether NATO should maintain an airbase in Iceland has nothing to do with whether NATO should deploy a missile shield in Poland.

Yes, I do understand your point, it is your opinion that the deployment of a missile shield in Poland will make tensions between Russia and the West worse. The reunification of Germany didn't help, adding former Warsaw Pact members to NATO didn't help, telling the Baltic states they could join NATO didn't help.....NATO is not in the business of pleasing Russia.
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  #113 (permalink)  
Old 11-12-2008, 01:34 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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NATO is not in the business of pleasing Russia.
  1. Personally when I discuss with people I don't know, friends and family, I have consitently supported Norways membership in Nato. I still do.
  2. Nobody will succeed in painting a picture to me of Russia as the big agressor. Why shall ordinary people from Georgia, Poland, Ukraine and Russia always suffer? I have watched a lot of different Tv programs about the war between Russia and Georgia. I can tell you that I personally don't buy Cnn's version. Georgia's president was here telling us about an unstable Russia. The news told that he got a cold shoulder. If anything has destabilized Russia, it is George Bush's plan of a missile shield in Poland.
  3. A lot of people say that Russia overreacted in the war against Georgia and I personally agree. But what do you think Russia and other nations say about 09.11.01? Your army now bomb Pakistani soil. Don't ask for my support.
  4. You simply don't see the forest for all the trees. That is my personal impression.

Last edited by kgun; 11-12-2008 at 01:49 AM.
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  #114 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2008, 01:28 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by kgun View Post
Personally when I discuss with people I don't know, friends and family, I have consitently supported Norways membership in Nato. I still do.
Its kept the peace in Europe for a fairly long time. Dilly Dallied a bit on Yugoslavia, but in the end put a stop to the bloodshed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kgun View Post
Nobody will succeed in painting a picture to me of Russia as the big agressor. Why shall ordinary people from Georgia, Poland, Ukraine and Russia always suffer? I have watched a lot of different Tv programs about the war between Russia and Georgia. I can tell you that I personally don't buy Cnn's version. Georgia's president was here telling us about an unstable Russia. The news told that he got a cold shoulder.
Georgia decided to bring the issue of South Ossetia and Abkhazia's secession to a head. Bad move when Russia is looming to the north.

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Originally Posted by kgun View Post
If anything has destabilized Russia, it is George Bush's plan of a missile shield in Poland.
Causation? WOW, you give George Bush more credit than he deserves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kgun View Post
A lot of people say that Russia overreacted in the war against Georgia and I personally agree. But what do you think Russia and other nations say about 09.11.01? Your army now bomb Pakistani soil. Don't ask for my support.
Our tangents are developing their own tangents here.

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Originally Posted by kgun View Post
You simply don't see the forest for all the trees. That is my personal impression.
It sounds to me like they know how to get under Russia's skin.

US missile defense complex in Poland - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Forest for the trees...give me a break, can't you identify a bargaining chip when you see one?

Since 1945 I'd say the US has done 'ok' vis-a-vis Russia.

This is interesting:
In December, 1999, the U.N. General Assembly endorsed a resolution aimed at pressing the United States to abandon plans to build an antimissile defense. Voting against the draft, together with the United States, were Albania, Israel and Micronesia. {Albania and Micronesia?} The members of the 15-nation European Union abstained, except for France and Ireland, which voted for the resolution. It called for continued efforts to strengthen and preserve the treaty. On December 15, 2001, the U.S. withdrew from the ABM treaty.
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Last edited by cw1865; 11-13-2008 at 01:35 AM. Reason: interesting
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  #115 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2008, 04:06 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
Causation? WOW, you give George Bush more credit than he deserves.
I would sooner debit him for that achievement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
Since 1945 I'd say the US has done 'ok' vis-a-vis Russia.
In my personal opinion: Yes, but after Bush's missile shield plan not. Who will pay, Joe the Plummer or Joe the billionair? Will it make the world / Europe safer?
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  #116 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2008, 10:29 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

This has been an extremely interesting and informative discussion to read.

Missle shield Plan... Is it the "sheild" or the "missiles" that are the crux? Chicken and egg? Without missiles there'd be no need for a "shield" no?

Been this way since the dawn of man. One group gets rocks, another gets something to protect themselves from rocks. Natural and reasonable response IMO. I don't see how much has changed. The same question remains... Is it the defense against the rocks or the rocks themselves that are the problem?

Dave
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  #117 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2008, 10:36 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

And today Iran fired yet another missile, can it reach Israel? Yup, will it be armed, yup.

We live in strange times, but I have a solution


All do this


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Old 11-13-2008, 11:33 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

That is a threat that should be taken seriously, but then I would not place the shield in Poland.

Read the news British and Russian ships fight off Somali pirates

As far as I remember, Mr. Putin asked for cooperation. The current US administration hardly know that word unless they ask for more help from NATO. Recent example: Why not cooperate with the Pakistani army in stead of Bomb. Bomb. Bomb and as a minimum ask afterwords.

David don't get your sleep destroyed. It is only an old Norwegian and a young American discussing an interesting topic. In my view discussion is more important than silence as long as it is siviliced.

A blogger was sentenced to 20 years in prison for mocking Myanmar dictator Gen. That is not my favourite model.

Last edited by kgun; 11-13-2008 at 11:48 AM.
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Old 11-13-2008, 11:46 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by crankydave View Post
Missle shield Plan... Is it the "sheild" or the "missiles" that are the crux? Chicken and egg? Without missiles there'd be no need for a "shield" no?
I can not answer, but I have noticed the Russian reaction.

Medvedev: Russia to Deploy Missiles in Response to U.S. Missile Shield

So the message is, a missile shield on every mountain top and Joe The Plummer pays.

It is an ugly bear market and it may get worse.
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  #120 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2008, 12:10 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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I can not answer, but I have noticed the Russian reaction.

Medvedev: Russia to Deploy Missiles in Response to U.S. Missile Shield

So the message is, a missile shield on every mountain top and Joe The Plummer pays.

It is an ugly bear market and it may get worse.
Well, I'd ask myself why? Why that kind of reaction. Deploy missiles to "neutralize" a defense against missiles in the first place. What's out of line or unreasonable? The shield plan or the response? Russia "claims/believes" it's designed to weaken them. Washington emphasizes it is not. Which do you believe?

Ultimately, "Joe" pays for everything. Doesn't matter what it is. In this case, will "Joe" have to pony up because of the shields or the missiles?

Missiles are indeed being fired. Do nothing from a "defensive" standpoint and "hope" they don't get used? That seems a bit short sighted to me.

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  #121 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2008, 02:18 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by crankydave View Post
Well, I'd ask myself why? Why that kind of reaction. Deploy missiles to "neutralize" a defense against missiles in the first place. What's out of line or unreasonable?
How is that shield constructed?

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Which do you believe?
A politician would not answer.
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Old 11-13-2008, 02:34 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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How is that shield constructed?
HowStuffWorks "How Missile Defense Systems Will Work"

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A politician would not answer.
Did not know you were a politician kgun.

Dave
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Old 11-13-2008, 03:17 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

It just seems to me that the Russians somehow fear that their strategic deterrent (aka the ability to obliterate the world) will somehow be compromised by this system. I understand that concern, but frankly I don't think this system comes anywhere close to that capability. The Russians still have submarines with nukes, bombers with nukes, many missiles with nukes, they even shoot nukes from artillery pieces. I just don't see this as a prelude to a Nato led 'Operation Barbarossa'

I understand Russia's historical fears of invasion. Nevertheless, Hitler, Napoleon and Charles XII were all repulsed. Poland has also suffered through innumerable invasions, whether it was the Prussians, German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire, Nazi Germany, Czarist Russia or the Soviet Union - how were the Poles winning? Overall, it would appear that the Poles have a greater fear inasmuch as their nation has actually lost independence for large stretches of time.

I just don't see how the presence of a missile defense shield is inherently more threatening to Russia than Polish membership in NATO to begin with. As a member of NATO, aren't there NATO forces in Poland, ie. fighers/soldiers/tanks, etc.?
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Old 11-13-2008, 04:05 PM
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Default Automakers

Well, I guess we should get back to the bailout?

Should the automakers be included?
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Old 11-13-2008, 04:25 PM
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Default Re: Automakers

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Well, I guess we should get back to the bailout?

Should the automakers be included?
lol...

nah, let them file and force the unions back to the table and the government to rethink/retool restrictions and mandates. Let's keep in mind, not a single one of them are struggling when it comes to their overseas operations.

Dave
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Old 11-13-2008, 04:35 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Back to topic:
  • Germany now officially in a recession.
  • Telecom giant BT to slash 10 000 jobs.
  • Netherlands to bail out SNS Reaal Bank.
For the first time in a while Mr. Market reacted positively to a speech from George Bush.
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Old 11-13-2008, 04:47 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Back to topic:
  • Germany now officially in a recession.
  • Telecom giant BT to slash 10 000 jobs.
  • Netherlands to bail out SNS Reaal Bank.
For the first time in a while Mr. Market reacted positively to a speech from George Bush.
The thing about Mr. Market is whether or not it's most/too heavily influenced by the few or the many. One recent example that comes to mind is Jim Cramer. He comes out and says to put the money you need for the next 5 years into cash and the DOW falls over 500 pts. Coincidence? Too much influence? Too many "sheep"?

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Old 11-14-2008, 01:08 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Daily noise may be news driven, but the main trends are not.
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Old 11-14-2008, 12:32 PM
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Default Re: Automakers

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Originally Posted by crankydave View Post
lol...

nah, let them file and force the unions back to the table and the government to rethink/retool restrictions and mandates.

Dave
Think of the worst case scenarion. 3 Million directly unemployed. The total (negative multipler) effect may be much larger.

In the news today, the EURO zone officialy in a recession for the first time since it was formed in 1999 and US retail sailes fall 2.8% in october the worst single fall since the government started reporting retail sales 16 years ago.

This is reported history and "not news".
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Old 11-14-2008, 04:53 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

It seems that the 'bailout' of the auto companies would take the form of 'guaranteed loans' - inasmuch as the 'bailout' itself was specifically designed, not so much to assist Wall Street, but rather to permit the proper functioning of credit markets which is supposed to keep 'Main Street' running....it would seem that the plan to assist automakers is consistent with that objective.

If GM's sales plummet by 45% in October because its customers don't have access to credit (in part at least), well, you could lose a GM because of a short term credit crunch.....

Overall, GM, Ford and Chrysler (and foreign manufacturers operating in the US), produce a substantial amount of jobs, and tax revenue. Consider all of the payroll and social security taxes collected from the Big Three's US Based work force, the sales tax collected by the states on the sale of every one of its cars (I think only two states don't have a sales tax) and by and large it would seem that its in the government's interest to keep these companies going.

As much as I generally agree that the Big Three need to focus on making quality products that are in demand in the market; I fear that the loss of the Big Three will turn what is going to be a nasty recession into a full blown Depression.....the protectionist howl, coupled with a Democratic administration would be heard everywhere.....Smoot-Hawley tariff anyone?
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Old 11-14-2008, 08:58 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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As much as I generally agree that the Big Three need to focus on making quality products that are in demand in the market; I fear that the loss of the Big Three will turn what is going to be a nasty recession into a full blown Depression.....
In my opinion the bottom will fall out of the market and it will have international repurcussions on German Opel and Swedish Volvo owned by GM and Swedish Saab owned by Ford.

Volvo & Saab teaming up to bring 10 plug-in hybrids on the road by 2009

A great opportunity to switch to greener technologies.

Throwing good money after bad money implies keeping old solutions with no requirements.

Seems like an interesting blog: http://www.autobloggreen.com/

Now watching the space shuttle launch on Cnn in real time. Great America.

Now over 3000 MPH.

Congratulation

A positive story in the bear landscape:

European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV made a net profit of 679 million euros ($850 million) in the three months to September compared with a 776 million euro loss a year ago.

Last edited by kgun; 11-14-2008 at 09:08 PM.
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Old 11-14-2008, 10:00 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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In my opinion the bottom will fall out of the market and it will have international repurcussions on German Opel and Swedish Volvo owned by GM and Swedish Saab owned by Ford.
It could certainely disrupt established supply chains for units owned by those companies. If they did go under, they would undoubtedly spin off whatever remained that was profitable, ie. Opel might be strong enough to be a stand alone, or perhaps it could be acquired by Fiat, Renault, etc. SAAB, being a niche player, would probably need a major partner.

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Volvo & Saab teaming up to bring 10 plug-in hybrids on the road by 2009

A great opportunity to switch to greener technologies.

Throwing good money after bad money implies keeping old solutions with no requirements.
And today I paid $1.99 for a gallon of gas, In July, I paid a maximum of $3.95, two weeks ago $2.21....if you recall we discussed earlier what the best way to bring forth the 'infant' green industries would be. With this type of yo-yo in gas prices, its difficult to see the incentive from the private market (ie. you could make the best zero emission, 170mpg equivalent plug in hybrid, but if gas falls too low, you're out of business). This is ultimately why I was swayed by your argument that taxes must be levied on carbon emissions themselves (I had tended to favor general subsidies from the general tax fund)

Seems like an interesting blog: AutoblogGreen

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Now watching the space shuttle launch on Cnn in real time. Great America.

Now over 3000 MPH.
As a kid in the 80s, I was enamored with the Space Shuttle, SR-71 (Blackbird), and the Concorde. Weren't we supposed to be living on moon bases by now?

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Congratulation
Will we see a person on Mars, ever?

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Originally Posted by kgun View Post
A positive story in the bear landscape:

European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV made a net profit of 679 million euros ($850 million) in the three months to September compared with a 776 million euro loss a year ago.
And actually it might be even better: "In the nine months to September, EADS reported EBIT of 2 billion euros ($2.5 billion) on sales of 29.4 billion euros ($36.8 billion)." In a healthy economic landscape you would hope for a fatter margin, but in a lean year, I would say that is a bright spot.
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Old 11-15-2008, 08:57 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Sales for the Big 3 are up overseas. Foreign companies produce and turn a profit in the US.

Providing more credit to to those who can't handle what's been already extended to them now is putting a bandaid on a wound that needs stitches. Consumer debt is just flat ridiculous and encouraging/enabling more of it is going to substantially extend an already bad problem and likely worsen it.

Dave
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Old 11-15-2008, 01:12 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

I guess we should disclose our Big Three biases?

1990 Honda Prelude - excellent
1993 Saturn 'Ion' (predecessor, they started calling them IONs after I bought it) - bad cam lifters; would stall when turning left (very dangerous)
1994 Honda Accord - good
1996 Mercury Mystique (Ford Contour) - transmission at 63K miles (just over the warranty)
2000 Nissan Sentra - excellent
2004 Chrysler Sebring - very good (very comfortable, most fun car I've owned), still low miles
2005 Jeep Liberty - excellent (excellent for moving things/people), still low miles
2006 Ford Taurus - ? wife's car

In this day and age you have a difficult time identifying the 'American' car anyway. Ford Fusion (Mexico), Toyota Camry (Georgetown, KY), Honda Accord (Marysville, OH) - go figure.....
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Old 11-15-2008, 05:34 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Consumer debt is just flat ridiculous and encouraging/enabling more of it is going to substantially extend an already bad problem and likely worsen it.
But credit woes ahead.



"Since the epicenter of this recession continues to be the housing-related credit crisis, it is worth examining the outlook for credit growth in the context of the Fed easing that has already occurred. For this purpose, we look at the Leading Credit Index which is designed to anticipate cyclical turns in Nonfinancial Corporate Debt growth.

As the chart shows, downturns of the current magnitude in the LCrI have never occurred except before recessions. However, the downturn in corporate debt growth has only recently begun, suggesting that it has some way to go since, typically, corporate debt growth bottoms out shortly after the recovery begins".


There is a party going on at the first class.

"After all, world leaders who are in town to discuss the economic crisis are set to dine in style Friday night while sipping wine listed at nearly $500 a bottle".

World leaders dine in style as they discuss financial crisis

At least, is is good Kynesian policy, but the general marginal propensity to consume may have decreased during the bailout.

Last edited by kgun; 11-15-2008 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 11-15-2008, 05:45 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Opel might be strong enough to be a stand alone, or perhaps it could be acquired by Fiat, Renault, etc. SAAB, being a niche player, would probably need a major partner.
Opel asks for German public loan guarantees

Opel needs help as car sales skid across Europe
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Old 11-15-2008, 06:44 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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At least, is is good Kynesian policy, but the general marginal propensity to consume may have decreased during the bailout.
Considering the negative savings rate, the marginal propensity to consume an additional $1 in income should yield $1.0005 in additional consumption, no?

I think one of the assumptions of Keynesianism is that government's multiplier is higher because a RATIONAL individual, when 'given' an extra $1 in income will actually save some portion of it....
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Old 11-15-2008, 06:47 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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"After all, world leaders who are in town to discuss the economic crisis are set to dine in style Friday night while sipping wine listed at nearly $500 a bottle".
I always love these comments, I mean should they just hold the summit at a McDonald's and serve Diet Coke or something? or perhaps Spam in a Can.....I get it, people are hurting economically, they're sipping $500.00 wine (chutzpah).....its good to be the 'king'!
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Old 11-15-2008, 06:50 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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As the chart shows, downturns of the current magnitude in the LCrI have never occurred except before recessions. However, the downturn in corporate debt growth has only recently begun, suggesting that it has some way to go since, typically, corporate debt growth bottoms out shortly after the recovery begins".
Ugh...that means we have a ways to go yet....because that chart doesn't look like its bottomed out yet...
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Old 11-15-2008, 06:52 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Considering the negative savings rate, the marginal propensity to consume an additional $1 in income should yield $1.0005 in additional consumption, no?
My assumption: The marginal propensity to consume has fallen below one now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
I think one of the assumptions of Keynesianism is that government's multiplier is higher because a RATIONAL individual, when 'given' an extra $1 in income will actually save some portion of it....
That was my rational assumption in this

http://www.webproworld.com/breakroom...tml#post402207

post. Wait until it redirects to the post in question.
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Old 11-15-2008, 07:07 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Originally Posted by cw1865 View Post
I always love these comments, I mean should they just hold the summit at a McDonald's and serve Diet Coke or something? or perhaps Spam in a Can.....I get it, people are hurting economically, they're sipping $500.00 wine (chutzpah).....its good to be the 'king'!
Obama made it cheaper:

President-Elect Obama's First YouTube Address

Official site:
http://www.change.gov/

Related:
Obama Adds Online Video to Weekly Address

Last edited by kgun; 11-15-2008 at 07:59 PM.
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Old 11-15-2008, 10:43 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

The modern equivalent to FDR's 'fireside chats'
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Old 11-16-2008, 01:36 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Nice little debate on the auto side of the bailout....

msnbc.com Video Player
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Old 11-18-2008, 11:01 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

And now, on Cnn they are showing companies like Online Trading Academy - Online Trading - Trading Education - Trading School - Stock Trading - Day Trading arranging trading courses costing more thant USD 5000.

My rule of tumb: 10 % make money on trading. In order of priority trading is about:
  1. Psyche - relying on yourself.
  2. Money management.
  3. Tarding system and platform. Eg. being able to compute the risk / reward potential before you enter a trade.
In the mean time, Japan and the EURO zone has formally entered a recession. Growth is reduced in India and China. Pakistan has got a loan from IMF and Citigroup are going to cut 50,000 jobs.

It started with toxic loans inflated house prices (the pin):

"Speculative bubbles can continue for years on end. It's impossible to predict when one will end. The end of the current stock market bubble has been predicted since the mid 1990s, yet it goes on and on. Eventually, an event occurs that acts as a crash catalyst, a pin that pricks the bubble. The event presents investors with stark and conclusive evidence that the source of fuel for the speculation is about to be cut off. For example, if the Fed were forced to raise interest rates to protect the dollar from speculation, the "don't fight the Fed" bull market mantra singers will fall suddenly silent. Buyers of stocks at lower prices will quickly outnumber buyers of stocks at higher prices. In a financial bubble, this tends to happen swiftly as investors, each knowing they are part of a mass speculation yet believing they alone will get out in time with their profits, suddenly discover that their belief is exactly the same as that held majority of fellow speculators, who then all rush for the exits at the same time. Prices collapse with breathtaking speed. It is an awesome event".

We are now witnessing global repercussions and a negative impact on the real economy. Commentators say that the recession will bottom out in 2010. I am not sure. While I worked in the Central Bank of Noway, we used a term: "Dead meat has to be cut away". My own opinion:
  1. The financial sector is to efficient and too big to the demand.
  2. The air and car industry are also too big to the global demand.
Commisions proportional to the magnitude of disadvise and risk taking by management (derivative inspired payment) is now discounted by drawing on Joe The Plummers reserves. In the mean time leaders are still having a party at the first class.

Speculative manias are not twins, but they belong to the same family.

Regarding dollar trading volume vs. GDP (see figure in last link): It is at the highest top in history and the recession and credit tsunami has just started.
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Old 11-18-2008, 07:28 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Bad. Bad. Breaking news on Cnn. Now the crisis has reached the state level. California the eight largest economy in the world and New York have increased their debt dramatically and may have problems paying their bills:

More ...

Regarding the car industry:

One of the Big Three must go, says bank chief

As an economist, I have come to the same conclusion. The car industry is "informally banks".

Bail them out, merge, reward energy efficiency and green technologies. Like Norwegian banks were taken over by the government for a periode, I see no problems that the government owns the big three, two or one and sell them back when the economy and the market is better. That may even be profitabel to tax payers.

Related:
Auto industry collapse would crush U.S. economy: study
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Old 11-18-2008, 07:38 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Bad. Bad. Breaking news on Cnn. Now the crisis has reached the state level. California the eight largest economy in the world and New York have increased their debt dramatically and may have problems paying their bills:
Actually not exactly 'breaking' news. I think the problem is that over in Norway you don't see much that is occuring at the 'state' level. After the bailout was announced, the Democrats began pushing for a second stimulus plan. That stimulus plan focused on shoring up the states.

The problem is that when times are good, the states increase their budgets based on larger tax revenues from sales tax and state income taxes. When times get bad, they are not ready, their tax base decreases while their unemployment compensation claims increase.

Even small towns see it. In NJ, property values went through the roof during the real estate bubble. Well, guess what follows - property tax receipts....our town of 2500 people has brand new police cars, (Some of them SUVs no less), and they built a brand new library (which very few people go to)....Now, they're crying for money....
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Old 11-18-2008, 07:53 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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Actually not exactly 'breaking' news. I think the problem is that over in Norway you don't see much that is occuring at the 'state' level.
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What we see is only the top of the iceberg. Something I have personally claimed for weeks.
So I was correct.
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Old 11-18-2008, 08:01 PM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Just in case you're interested:
New York Times, November 18th, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/bu...0stimulus.html

When the credit crisis boiled over in September, bringing the financial system to the brink of collapse and leading Congress to pass a $750 billion bailout package, Democrats began to push for a second round of stimulus.
Their new package, which could cost between $150 and $300 billion, called for providing tax relief in some form for families, the goal being to step up their spending, as the rebates were intended to do earlier this year. In addition, unemployment insurance benefits would be extended beyond 39 weeks and the food stamp program would expand. Both would channel money to people who would probably spend every penny to meet their needs. But the biggest chunk, perhaps as much as $150 billion, would go to states and cities to sustain their everyday spending. President Bush and many Republicans opposed the package.
The idea of a second stimulus package got a boost from Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, who on Oct. 20 said that such a step would be "appropriate'' in light of the continued weakening of the economy.

Now, of course, they are calling for a larger plan.....
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Old 11-19-2008, 01:52 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

Facts About the Auto Crisis - GM Facts and Fiction
An interesting website, GM lobbying for the assistance....
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Old 11-19-2008, 08:01 AM
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Default Re: Bailout, the $700 billion dilemma and world markets

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An interesting website, GM lobbying for the assistance....
Craig, there you used the correct word "lobbying".

As it has been said:

Energy policy = Sum of all lobby activity.

And there is a relation. I am sure that there is a relationship between energy policy and care engine efficiency. Some important companies are simply not interested in green policies either.
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