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Mr Market is forward looking, so you may find strong signals of the outcome of the election in the http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html or the NASDAQ-100 Pre-Market Indicator and NASDAQ-100 Pre-Market Heatmap |
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Index ..... Value ........ Change ..... Open ............High ........ Low .......... Time .....
DJIA ..... 9,330.00 .......-2.00 ........9,330.00 .......9,332.00 ....9,294.00..... 23.46 S&P 500.. 968.80 ........ -0.70 ..........969.20 .........971.00 ......964.10....... 23.46 NAS 100.. 1341.00 ....... -0.50 ........1342.00 .......1344.00 .....1334.75...... 23.47 (Time 00.11 - 00.14 - 00.02 respectively -- All the above three are weakly green.) Index ............... Value ........ Change ..... Open ............High ........ Low .......... Time ..... Nikkei 225 ..... 9090.00 ........ 640 ........ 8,390.00 ......9,110.00 .... 8,320.00..... 00.07 Hang Seng ... 14,321.00 ....... 144 ........14,150.00..... 14,429.00 ... 13,736.00... 23.29 So watch / follow this link. Bloomberg.com: Futures Strong green (+) means Obama in my opinion. Latest news: Australia Cuts Key Interest Rate by 75 Basis Points "Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected three quarters of a percentage point, the third reduction in as many months, amid evidence global financial turmoil is buffeting the economy".
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-04-2008 at 02:03 AM. |
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So Mr. Market was correct. The "futures" grew stronger during the day and the indices ended the day:
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-05-2008 at 09:41 AM. |
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Some updates:
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-07-2008 at 03:11 PM. |
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The bailout continues:
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From Scandinavia:
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-11-2008 at 02:44 PM. |
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Astute, as usual. Global problems naturally call for global solutions. Your analogy to a ship is well taken, not only is the ship sinking, but it has more than one captain.
In the future, this represents the single largest threat to national sovereignity. Whereas in the past it was military conquest, the future may well see a 'surrender' couched in terms of a legal delegation of authority to global entities. For larger countries, this is a concern, for smaller countries its even a greater concern inasmuch as their national individuality will dissolve like a sugar cube in a cup of coffee. In the US, treaties are the supreme law of the land. Treaties can trump even the US Constitution. It is of concern because the US government's powers are enumerated in the Constitution, specifically delegated by the people of the United States. What happens if the US enters a Treaty which delegates power to an international agency.....problem.... Check out the debate on the Bricker Amendment: Bricker Amendment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia This isn't semantics either: Justices Rebuff Bush and World Court - washingtonpost.com |
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USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) is the tenth and last Nimitz class supercarrier of the United States Navy. How much did they cost?The danger with such "toys" is that there is a tendency to use / test them, like the rocket shield in Eastern Europe. It has its own logic and dynamics. Now Napoleon and Hitler have been on a visit to Russia. Don't look at the army that go in. Look at the army that returns. Quote:
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Yes, there are at least three countries that can close their borders. In alphabetical order:
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-11-2008 at 07:39 PM. |
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Now of course, in 1990, things change, NATO expands eastwards. Russia is relatively weaker inasmuch as it has lost the Soviet Union itself and many members of the Warsaw Pact to NATO. Nevertheless, NATO still remains the primary alliance to counter a 'potential' Russian aggresion and hopefully to maintain order in places like the Balkans. As much as I would say that the US really does not need to remain a full fledged member of NATO since it is clear to me that the current NATO members have the ability and wherewithal to defend themselves; the US is, in fact, a member, and so is Poland. If Russia remains the primary threat that NATO is intended to thwart (and if it isn't, then NATO is no longer required at all), it seems to me that building defenses against missiles is reasonable since the Russians, in point of fact, do possess missiles. This is precisely what militaries do, they look at the other side and develop weapons that counter their weapons and create weapons to hopefully exploit a perceived weakness. The US withdrew from the ABM Treaty in 2002. As a sovereign nation, it has every right to do so. As far as the Navy is concerned, the Navy is paramount in American strategic thinking. You can look at Norway's position on the map and I can tell you right now how Norway's forces would be utilized if NATO were invoked. You would be attempting to bottle up the Russian fleet in the Arctic and the Baltic. The US currently has important treaty committments to NATO and South Korea, but at the end of the day, the forces there are insufficient in themselves to actually thwart an invasion (by themselves). The strategy hinges on France/Germany/UK to essentially repel the invasion and, if need be, to have the oceans open to bring US reinforcements (if needed). Essentially the same is true in South Korea. If the Navy doesn't control the ocean, the reinforcements aren't coming. |
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In my opinion status quo and predictability is better than some form of change My personal observation. I may be wrong, a worsening relationship between Russia and Western Europe / USA after the missile initiative. Yes, Poland is a member of NATO. Isn't that enough?
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-11-2008 at 08:56 PM. |
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Yes, I do understand your point, it is your opinion that the deployment of a missile shield in Poland will make tensions between Russia and the West worse. The reunification of Germany didn't help, adding former Warsaw Pact members to NATO didn't help, telling the Baltic states they could join NATO didn't help.....NATO is not in the business of pleasing Russia. |
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-12-2008 at 01:49 AM. |
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US missile defense complex in Poland - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Forest for the trees...give me a break, can't you identify a bargaining chip when you see one? Since 1945 I'd say the US has done 'ok' vis-a-vis Russia. This is interesting: In December, 1999, the U.N. General Assembly endorsed a resolution aimed at pressing the United States to abandon plans to build an antimissile defense. Voting against the draft, together with the United States, were Albania, Israel and Micronesia. {Albania and Micronesia?} The members of the 15-nation European Union abstained, except for France and Ireland, which voted for the resolution. It called for continued efforts to strengthen and preserve the treaty. On December 15, 2001, the U.S. withdrew from the ABM treaty. Last edited by cw1865; 11-13-2008 at 01:35 AM. Reason: interesting |
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This has been an extremely interesting and informative discussion to read.
Missle shield Plan... Is it the "sheild" or the "missiles" that are the crux? Chicken and egg? Without missiles there'd be no need for a "shield" no? Been this way since the dawn of man. One group gets rocks, another gets something to protect themselves from rocks. Natural and reasonable response IMO. I don't see how much has changed. The same question remains... Is it the defense against the rocks or the rocks themselves that are the problem? Dave |
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And today Iran fired yet another missile, can it reach Israel? Yup, will it be armed, yup.
We live in strange times, but I have a solution All do this
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That is a threat that should be taken seriously, but then I would not place the shield in Poland.
Read the news British and Russian ships fight off Somali pirates As far as I remember, Mr. Putin asked for cooperation. The current US administration hardly know that word unless they ask for more help from NATO. Recent example: Why not cooperate with the Pakistani army in stead of Bomb. Bomb. Bomb and as a minimum ask afterwords. David don't get your sleep destroyed. It is only an old Norwegian and a young American discussing an interesting topic. In my view discussion is more important than silence as long as it is siviliced. A blogger was sentenced to 20 years in prison for mocking Myanmar dictator Gen. That is not my favourite model.
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-13-2008 at 11:48 AM. |
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Medvedev: Russia to Deploy Missiles in Response to U.S. Missile Shield So the message is, a missile shield on every mountain top and Joe The Plummer pays. It is an ugly bear market and it may get worse. |
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Ultimately, "Joe" pays for everything. Doesn't matter what it is. In this case, will "Joe" have to pony up because of the shields or the missiles? Missiles are indeed being fired. Do nothing from a "defensive" standpoint and "hope" they don't get used? That seems a bit short sighted to me. Dave |
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A politician would not answer. |
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It just seems to me that the Russians somehow fear that their strategic deterrent (aka the ability to obliterate the world) will somehow be compromised by this system. I understand that concern, but frankly I don't think this system comes anywhere close to that capability. The Russians still have submarines with nukes, bombers with nukes, many missiles with nukes, they even shoot nukes from artillery pieces. I just don't see this as a prelude to a Nato led 'Operation Barbarossa'
I understand Russia's historical fears of invasion. Nevertheless, Hitler, Napoleon and Charles XII were all repulsed. Poland has also suffered through innumerable invasions, whether it was the Prussians, German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire, Nazi Germany, Czarist Russia or the Soviet Union - how were the Poles winning? Overall, it would appear that the Poles have a greater fear inasmuch as their nation has actually lost independence for large stretches of time. I just don't see how the presence of a missile defense shield is inherently more threatening to Russia than Polish membership in NATO to begin with. As a member of NATO, aren't there NATO forces in Poland, ie. fighers/soldiers/tanks, etc.? |
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nah, let them file and force the unions back to the table and the government to rethink/retool restrictions and mandates. Let's keep in mind, not a single one of them are struggling when it comes to their overseas operations. Dave |
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Dave |
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Daily noise may be news driven, but the main trends are not.
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In the news today, the EURO zone officialy in a recession for the first time since it was formed in 1999 and US retail sailes fall 2.8% in october the worst single fall since the government started reporting retail sales 16 years ago. This is reported history and "not news". |
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It seems that the 'bailout' of the auto companies would take the form of 'guaranteed loans' - inasmuch as the 'bailout' itself was specifically designed, not so much to assist Wall Street, but rather to permit the proper functioning of credit markets which is supposed to keep 'Main Street' running....it would seem that the plan to assist automakers is consistent with that objective.
If GM's sales plummet by 45% in October because its customers don't have access to credit (in part at least), well, you could lose a GM because of a short term credit crunch..... Overall, GM, Ford and Chrysler (and foreign manufacturers operating in the US), produce a substantial amount of jobs, and tax revenue. Consider all of the payroll and social security taxes collected from the Big Three's US Based work force, the sales tax collected by the states on the sale of every one of its cars (I think only two states don't have a sales tax) and by and large it would seem that its in the government's interest to keep these companies going. As much as I generally agree that the Big Three need to focus on making quality products that are in demand in the market; I fear that the loss of the Big Three will turn what is going to be a nasty recession into a full blown Depression.....the protectionist howl, coupled with a Democratic administration would be heard everywhere.....Smoot-Hawley tariff anyone? |
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Volvo & Saab teaming up to bring 10 plug-in hybrids on the road by 2009 A great opportunity to switch to greener technologies. Throwing good money after bad money implies keeping old solutions with no requirements. Seems like an interesting blog: http://www.autobloggreen.com/ Now watching the space shuttle launch on Cnn in real time. Great America. Now over 3000 MPH. Congratulation A positive story in the bear landscape: European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV made a net profit of 679 million euros ($850 million) in the three months to September compared with a 776 million euro loss a year ago.
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-14-2008 at 09:08 PM. |
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Seems like an interesting blog: AutoblogGreen Quote:
Will we see a person on Mars, ever? Quote:
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Sales for the Big 3 are up overseas. Foreign companies produce and turn a profit in the US.
Providing more credit to to those who can't handle what's been already extended to them now is putting a bandaid on a wound that needs stitches. Consumer debt is just flat ridiculous and encouraging/enabling more of it is going to substantially extend an already bad problem and likely worsen it. Dave |
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I guess we should disclose our Big Three biases?
1990 Honda Prelude - excellent 1993 Saturn 'Ion' (predecessor, they started calling them IONs after I bought it) - bad cam lifters; would stall when turning left (very dangerous) 1994 Honda Accord - good 1996 Mercury Mystique (Ford Contour) - transmission at 63K miles (just over the warranty) 2000 Nissan Sentra - excellent 2004 Chrysler Sebring - very good (very comfortable, most fun car I've owned), still low miles 2005 Jeep Liberty - excellent (excellent for moving things/people), still low miles 2006 Ford Taurus - ? wife's car In this day and age you have a difficult time identifying the 'American' car anyway. Ford Fusion (Mexico), Toyota Camry (Georgetown, KY), Honda Accord (Marysville, OH) - go figure..... |
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![]() "Since the epicenter of this recession continues to be the housing-related credit crisis, it is worth examining the outlook for credit growth in the context of the Fed easing that has already occurred. For this purpose, we look at the Leading Credit Index which is designed to anticipate cyclical turns in Nonfinancial Corporate Debt growth. As the chart shows, downturns of the current magnitude in the LCrI have never occurred except before recessions. However, the downturn in corporate debt growth has only recently begun, suggesting that it has some way to go since, typically, corporate debt growth bottoms out shortly after the recovery begins". There is a party going on at the first class. "After all, world leaders who are in town to discuss the economic crisis are set to dine in style Friday night while sipping wine listed at nearly $500 a bottle". World leaders dine in style as they discuss financial crisis At least, is is good Kynesian policy, but the general marginal propensity to consume may have decreased during the bailout.
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-15-2008 at 05:37 PM. |
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Opel needs help as car sales skid across Europe |
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I think one of the assumptions of Keynesianism is that government's multiplier is higher because a RATIONAL individual, when 'given' an extra $1 in income will actually save some portion of it.... |
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I always love these comments, I mean should they just hold the summit at a McDonald's and serve Diet Coke or something? or perhaps Spam in a Can.....I get it, people are hurting economically, they're sipping $500.00 wine (chutzpah).....its good to be the 'king'!
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http://www.webproworld.com/breakroom...tml#post402207 post. Wait until it redirects to the post in question. |
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President-Elect Obama's First YouTube Address Official site: http://www.change.gov/ Related: Obama Adds Online Video to Weekly Address
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Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips Learn object oriented programming where it started Last edited by kgun; 11-15-2008 at 07:59 PM. |
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And now, on Cnn they are showing companies like Online Trading Academy - Online Trading - Trading Education - Trading School - Stock Trading - Day Trading arranging trading courses costing more thant USD 5000.
My rule of tumb: 10 % make money on trading. In order of priority trading is about:
It started with toxic loans inflated house prices (the pin): "Speculative bubbles can continue for years on end. It's impossible to predict when one will end. The end of the current stock market bubble has been predicted since the mid 1990s, yet it goes on and on. Eventually, an event occurs that acts as a crash catalyst, a pin that pricks the bubble. The event presents investors with stark and conclusive evidence that the source of fuel for the speculation is about to be cut off. For example, if the Fed were forced to raise interest rates to protect the dollar from speculation, the "don't fight the Fed" bull market mantra singers will fall suddenly silent. Buyers of stocks at lower prices will quickly outnumber buyers of stocks at higher prices. In a financial bubble, this tends to happen swiftly as investors, each knowing they are part of a mass speculation yet believing they alone will get out in time with their profits, suddenly discover that their belief is exactly the same as that held majority of fellow speculators, who then all rush for the exits at the same time. Prices collapse with breathtaking speed. It is an awesome event". We are now witnessing global repercussions and a negative impact on the real economy. Commentators say that the recession will bottom out in 2010. I am not sure. While I worked in the Central Bank of Noway, we used a term: "Dead meat has to be cut away". My own opinion:
Speculative manias are not twins, but they belong to the same family. Regarding dollar trading volume vs. GDP (see figure in last link): It is at the highest top in history and the recession and credit tsunami has just started. |
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Bad. Bad. Breaking news on Cnn. Now the crisis has reached the state level. California the eight largest economy in the world and New York have increased their debt dramatically and may have problems paying their bills:
More ... Regarding the car industry: One of the Big Three must go, says bank chief As an economist, I have come to the same conclusion. The car industry is "informally banks". Bail them out, merge, reward energy efficiency and green technologies. Like Norwegian banks were taken over by the government for a periode, I see no problems that the government owns the big three, two or one and sell them back when the economy and the market is better. That may even be profitabel to tax payers. Related: Auto industry collapse would crush U.S. economy: study |
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The problem is that when times are good, the states increase their budgets based on larger tax revenues from sales tax and state income taxes. When times get bad, they are not ready, their tax base decreases while their unemployment compensation claims increase. Even small towns see it. In NJ, property values went through the roof during the real estate bubble. Well, guess what follows - property tax receipts....our town of 2500 people has brand new police cars, (Some of them SUVs no less), and they built a brand new library (which very few people go to)....Now, they're crying for money.... |
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Just in case you're interested:
New York Times, November 18th, 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/bu...0stimulus.html When the credit crisis boiled over in September, bringing the financial system to the brink of collapse and leading Congress to pass a $750 billion bailout package, Democrats began to push for a second round of stimulus. Their new package, which could cost between $150 and $300 billion, called for providing tax relief in some form for families, the goal being to step up their spending, as the rebates were intended to do earlier this year. In addition, unemployment insurance benefits would be extended beyond 39 weeks and the food stamp program would expand. Both would channel money to people who would probably spend every penny to meet their needs. But the biggest chunk, perhaps as much as $150 billion, would go to states and cities to sustain their everyday spending. President Bush and many Republicans opposed the package. The idea of a second stimulus package got a boost from Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, who on Oct. 20 said that such a step would be "appropriate'' in light of the continued weakening of the economy. Now, of course, they are calling for a larger plan..... |
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Facts About the Auto Crisis - GM Facts and Fiction
An interesting website, GM lobbying for the assistance.... |
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Craig, there you used the correct word "lobbying".
As it has been said: Energy policy = Sum of all lobby activity. And there is a relation. I am sure that there is a relationship between energy policy and care engine efficiency. Some important companies are simply not interested in green policies either. |
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