As a rule of thumb:

1. 10 % of the population has the right psychological attitude and discipline to make money on stock trading.
2. 1 % of the population has the right psychological attitude and discipline to make money on horse betting.
3. 0.2 % of the population has the right psychological attitude and discipline to make money on blackjack or 21. The object of blackjack is to get a total card count greater than the dealer, but not higher than 21. Each card has a point value equal to its face, exept for picture cards that has a value of 10, and aces, that can be counted as either 1 or 11. A blackjack is a two-hand card consisting of a 10 card and an ace. The rules are such that the Casino has a small edge, but if a lot of small cards have been dealt - that is, the deck is rich in tens and aces, then the odds can shift in the favour of the better.

So: Mathematical (counting) skills is a necessary but far from sufficient condtion to succeed on any of the above activities.

And you have to have a system that gives you an edge and be true to that system: That is why discipline and psychological attitude is so important.

So what is the system that can give you an edge playing blackjack in the Casino?

Casiones usually use four-deck shoes.

The simplest method is to count tens, aces and other cards. But that is too simple. A better method is to give different cards a value and keep track of the sum.

One simple method:

1. Give 2,3,4,5,6 a value of 1.
2. Give 7,8,9 a value of 0.
3. Give tens and aces a value of -1.

Then you have to register the cards that is dealt and keep track of the standardized count (the raw count divided by the number of decks remaining). The higher the standardized count, the better are your odds.

Example:

1. Raw count = 10 and 2 decks remaining, the standardized count is 5.
2. Raw count = 10 and 1/2 deck remaining, the standardized count is 20.

Your odds are best in the second case.

But there are more optimal counting methods like the Reverse Advance Point Count:

1. Give 2,3,6 a value of 2.
2. Give 4's a value of 3.
3. Give 5's a value of 4.
4. Give 7's a value of 1.
5. Give 8's a value of 0.
6. Give 9's a value of -2.
7. Give ten cards a value of -3.
8. Keep a separate track of aces.

But that is not the optimal count based on probability theory. There are more optimal methods, but there is always a tradeoff between accuracy and difficulty.

Conclusion:
If you ever go to the casino to use money, you have to have the right psychological attitude, the right discipline and a good system that you stick to. Don't forget, if you go to use this method in Las Vegas, that is as far as I know a town where you get free drinks and may have lost your house before you leave, stay sober.

One of the best trading and intelligent betting advices I can give you, is that you should love small losses, but hate big ones. That is, leave before a small loss turns into a big one. And don't go to the casino to play blackjack if you can not count fast and accurate.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

They're beginning to employ continuous shuffling machines now which basically renders card counting useless.

In Nevada, if they see you're counting they can get you out anyway....if you're using something other than your mind to count, you're going to jail.

__________________

Good to know.

Then only gamblers should be left, and people talking calculated risk should seek other opportunities.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Man thats a lot of stuff you ought to be a gambler??
I think you only need two...
money and luck

__________________
Australian travel visas | Australian visa services

I define gambling such:

A = Event.
I = Information set.
0 <= P <= 1 Where P = Probability of success. P = 1/2 ==> Random outcome of tossing a coin in the long run.

P(A|I) = P(A).

There is no information in the information set I.

I can not understand that American casion's have made blackjack a random lottery. Then you definitely need luck to suceed. I don't trust luck.

The casiono will make money since there are only a few informed players (that count). Most players rely on luck and go to the casiono to have fun.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

How come all of your posts have a mathematical
equation on them??/
are you a math man???
dude, not everything in life is measured...
get alife

__________________
Australian travel visas | Australian visa services

That is only here in the break room. And I am a quasi mathematician.

There was much there of pure math I had no chance of understanding.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Since I enjoy gambling, a couple of observations.

Your particular odds at a table, using what you outlined above, change for you and the dealer, for every card that is played after you during the same hand. Kind of depends where you are sitting at the table... if I'm understanding your post correctly.

If you're sitting at "1st base" (first player position) your odds for that particular hand will have changed by the time the dealer plays. On the other hand, if you're sitting at 3rd base (last player position) you'll have seen all the cards played with the exception of yours and the dealers. This assumes that the players cards are dealt face up. If the cards are dealt face down, then the odds for a particular hand won't be know, especially when you're at a full table.

At any rate, very interesting post kgun. I liked it.

Dave

__________________
Religious-Jewelry Blog - Deep Link Directory - Religious Jewelry

I have never played blackjack. I am a theoretician. And I have only been at a Casino with some friends once without using a cent on betting, since I think I knew too little.

What I can say to your comment, is that your standardizd count is continually updated as you see new cards. That is why you have to be a "fast mental counter and adder" to get the edge. But if the cards are distributed completely random, you loose that edge. I can not understand that that is correct.

My advice:
If 4 decks are used, exercise with 8 decks with your friends at home.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

I have played at tables where the players cards are all dealt face up. I can see where what you outline above could be advantageous in this situation. I'm not sure if there are tables anymore that do it this way.

Most deal the players cards face down and the the dealer oone card down (hole card) and one card up. So if your sitting at a table with 5 other people, there's 11 cards you can't see until the hand is over.

Nevertheless, I do tend to be a fast mental counter, and prefer sitting at single deck tables so I am going to "practice" with what you posted.

My "spring break" this year is going to be to visit a new casino not far from here for a few days.

Dave

__________________
Religious-Jewelry Blog - Deep Link Directory - Religious Jewelry

Oh, almost forgot... Additionally...

When, for example, a four deck shoe is used, approximately 1 full deck is separated from the rest (bottom of portion of all cards) with a "cut card" after each shuffle, and those cards are never dealt.

How does that affect your numbers ?

Dave

__________________
Religious-Jewelry Blog - Deep Link Directory - Religious Jewelry

Does math really help in gambling?
all those probabilities and ratios?

__________________
Australian travel visas | Australian visa services

The same standardized count of the cards that you have registered can of course be used.

Every new card that you register and add to (subtract from) the count represent information.

Example:
The raw count is 8 and the first card you register is a picture card and then a new picture card. The raw count is reduced to 2 and your chance to beat the dealer is reduced. It is a formal method to weight and register cards that is better than only registering the different cards.

The count is a numeric metric quantifying past information so you can beat the dealer and gamblers (that is players not collecting information in a systematic way). You increase your bet size proportional to the size of the standardized count.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

Thank you kgun.

Dave

__________________
Religious-Jewelry Blog - Deep Link Directory - Religious Jewelry

there are many strategies that people play with at casinos and online gambling sites. most games however are chance based so even with enough knowledge and some thought, you can't bet on the results being in your favor. Card games however are something with set odds and the ability to alter results based on your thoughts. poker is the best example of this, but yes card counting for black jack can also work in your favor....

__________________
~Catrina~
PM for Killer Content Discount

That is more important than any other rule. Then you have to turn the odds in your favour being systematic.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

better bet is to stay away...the more you gamble, the more you lose...bet on yourself instead!

__________________

I was a croupier for a while and dealt black jack and roulette. Card counting does you no favours because the four decks are never fully played through, the shoe is randomly cut into two by a breaker so you have no way of knowing whats in the later portion making your counting useless.
I started the job thinkin id turn into a master but by the end of the training id realised that the casino always wins! The odds are always in the casinos favour and (legitimate) techniques dont get you anywhere!!
I reckon the best game is poker (against other players - not them machines!). With poker you have one weapon on your side, human error! If you can influence human error you can win...(saying that i am yet to make any huge amounts from poker!)

__________________
Latest Blog Post: Google Consultant - Should this Job Title be Allowed? - Matt Inertia's SEO Blog - SEOers.org

"Carpe diem, seize the day boys, make your lives extraordinary" - Dead Poets Society

Jabo, I do not understand mathematics.

But I DO understand that some people not only understand mathematics, but actually enjoy the subject, too.

Now, although I do not understand mathematics and, as a result, do not enjoy it, I would not be so presumptuous as to believe that people who do enjoy mathematics should "get a life."

__________________
http://thatsnews.blogspot.com http://thats-business.blogspot.com/ http://thatschristmas.blogspot.com

Interesting thread ! So much so that my first post goes here !!

I used to 'need' to burn money so I used to go and have 'fun' at some casino ! Some fun it turned out to be !

My advise, both as an old man and a seasoned gambler is: STAY AWAY before you are skinned alive ! Once you become addicted you cannot stop going, I even used to travel abroad when fed up with the local casinos !

If any of you are wondering, YES, I DID win -- TEMPORARILY, i.e. for a day or 2 but then you go and lose it all AND MORE TOO !

My bolding. If the cards are shuffled randomly you are correct, since the rules then, give the casino an edge. Then black jack is gambling too. But I think there are casinos where the cards are not shuffled randomly. If that is the case, you can be among the 0.2 % that win. The casino also wins in the long run, since 99.8 % of the players loose, even if the cards are not shuffled randomly.

Note: (1 000 000 x 0.2)/100 = 2 000. So of 1 million visitors to the casino, 2 000 will win if the cards are not shuffled randomly. Loosers pay, winners stay.

Agree to that, but Bot determinism can also be a disadvantage. Example, some brokers use bots to compute the fair value of a financial instrument like and option. You can use that determinism to your favour. But this is a too large topic to discusse in the WPW breakroom.

My only betting is on the horse tracks since I like horses - the sport, and you can use a combination of system and horse knowledge to win. Today I know to little about our local horses, since I can not use enough time to study the program in any detail and follow the horses closely enough. When I followed them more closely my largerst win was:

Betting Nok: 120

Return Nok: 65 000.

Is used some of the money to buy a laptop.

Aonther very important thing if you make a large win:

Let the money stay untouched on an account in at least a year, so you get used too it. You get used to being (relatively) rich (or less poor)

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

They even have a movie out now about the MIT card counters which I had seen on the History Channel on 'Beating Vegas' - yes, mathematically its possible, but there are practical problems: 1. if you start winning and the casino notices that you have a high/low pattern to your bets, they will shut down the table (at the very least) or tell you to leave; 2. they are starting to employ continuous shuffling machines to destroy the counting advantage and 3. the environment itself isn't conducive to concentrate in.

But I see that you have returned....vacation?

__________________

I am getting confused? How can cards be shuffled anything other than randomly? The very nature of dealer shuffling a pack is to randomly mix those cards together, surely?

What happens in the casinos where the cards aren't shuffled randomly?

__________________
Latest Blog Post: Google Consultant - Should this Job Title be Allowed? - Matt Inertia's SEO Blog - SEOers.org

"Carpe diem, seize the day boys, make your lives extraordinary" - Dead Poets Society

I think its just a Norwegian to English translation problem. He's saying, if shuffled (random implied), edge gained from counting vanishes. If 'not shuffled randomly' he means simply not shuffled.....whereas we read that as somehow you're shuffling the deck in a way that is not random.

__________________

Of course, the remaining cards are shuffled randomly. I meant this. As I have told, I have never played blackjack at a casino. This is how I have understood the game at some casions.

Some casinos as far as I know, use a given number of decks and do not reshuffle the cards continually, since that makes the outcome completely unpredictable, that is random.

Example:

The casino use 4 decks.

There are 4 x 4 = 16 aces.

There are 4 x 4 x 4 = 64 tens.

There are 8 x 4 x 4 = 128 other cards with different values in my count. Se the start of the thread.

It is easier to use the count as I defined in the start of this thread than registering every card.

(Some people are able to do that. There are chess players that can play with 10 competent players simultaneously and beat all. The best chess players can have "4 game positions in their head").

So if I have understood how blackjack is played at some casions correctly, a relatively low standardized count (see first post) tell you that the odds are against you.

There is also a difference between a priori and a posteriori probability. A priori you have a probability of 0.5 to get a head tossing a fair coin. A posteri (after the coin has been tossed, the "probability" is 0 or 1).

The whole point is (again if I have understood the rules at some casinos correct) that your standardized count carries information about the remaining cards. If the standardized coung is low, you get an edge.

Ideally, you shall not play when the count is low, but that make your strategy more transparent. You shall bet proportionally with the magnitude of your standardized count.

Read my first post before you answer.

Of course, if there is alwasy 4 full decks (and the cards are continually reshuffled) there is no point in counting cards (card values) and keeping track of the count.

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started

That's it exactly! There is no way to "cheat" the casino.

In a British casino you play with 4 decks in a shoe. The four decks are shuffled. Then one player (it goes to a different player every time) places a splitter randomly into the decks. The games continue for as many hands until the splitter is reached then the four decks are fully re-shuffled again. I'm fully aware of counting systems but you just cant do it successfully!

__________________
Latest Blog Post: Google Consultant - Should this Job Title be Allowed? - Matt Inertia's SEO Blog - SEOers.org

"Carpe diem, seize the day boys, make your lives extraordinary" - Dead Poets Society

My bolding.


Note the date of your answer:

__________________
Mini Network:: Financial information at your fingertips
Learn object oriented programming where it started