History's hidden engine?

kgun · #1 (**permalink**) 04-20-2006, 12:30 PM

Listen if you have free time:
http://www.socionomics.net/films/his...e=1&speed=high

Speculation or science?

Are the world economy in a bull market as part of a secular bear market?

timmathews.com · #2 (**permalink**) 04-21-2006, 03:30 PM

Wow. That is really a magnificent concept.
I just purchased the DVDs!

kgun · #3 (**permalink**) 04-21-2006, 04:29 PM

Ralph Nelson Elliott called his work by the ambitious title: "Natures Law - The secret of the universe (1946)".

Today a mathematician would say "Fractals everywhere." Fractal structure in trees, flowers, clouds, Galaxies, coast lines, .....

Is human behaviour patterned in the same way?

He claims that financial time series has fractal structure. The overriding form of movement is the socalled 5 - 3 fractal. If you think of it that is the minimal fractal that gives evolution and fluctuation. It is the most efficient structure and nature often moves according to the most efficient structure. A river takes the easiest path.

I find his explanation facinating. His findings has been refined and put into a "scientific"?? setting by Robert Prechter.

The criticques say, if you put 10 Elliotticians into a room, they come out with 12 explanations.

Purchased the DVD's? No late april 1. joke?

timmathews.com · #4 (**permalink**) 04-21-2006, 07:17 PM

I was planning on purchasing them, should I not?
I was actually on the order page when I was replying to your post, and then got swamped.
Until now, I had forgotten all about the minimized order form, which has now expired.
Do you know of any reason I should not buy them?

kgun · #5 (**permalink**) 04-22-2006, 06:59 PM

Did you look at the movie? The connection between music and movements in the stock market seems "unscientific" in my personal view. At least in the way it is presented in the movie.

I am an affiliate, and have their logo on a lot of sites.

It claims to be a generalization of the DOW theory if you know that theory.

My personal view:

Important to know the theory, their message and have an open mind.

If I had to own only one book in finance, I personally would own:

Benjamin Graham, "The intelligent investor." eg. the Revised 2003 version with preface and appendix by Warren Buffett and comments by Jason Zweig.

"R. N. Elliott's Masterworks" edited by Robert R. Prechter, Jr is among the 10 most wanted. The same with Edwin Lefevre "Reminicences of a Stock operator."

I would have bought those three books (if I did not own them) before the videos. The videos may be good in the way that they introduce you faster to the subject. I have not seen them myself, but read a lot of the books on the Elliott Wave Principle.

I have written a mater thesis in mathematical finance of 295 pages on fractal and chaotic structure etc. in finance. Emperical analysis has "proved" fractal structure in financial time series.

Then it is easy to understand the principle. A lot of people do not understand it, and I have seen clear misunderstandings in papers by claimed specialists.

Was that a diplomatic answer?