As a rule of thumb:
- 10 % of the population has the right psychological attitude and discipline to make money on stock trading.
- 1 % of the population has the right psychological attitude and discipline to make money on horse betting.
- 0.2 % of the population has the right psychological attitude and discipline to make money on blackjack or 21. The object of blackjack is to get a total card count greater than the dealer, but not higher than 21. Each card has a point value equal to its face, exept for picture cards that has a value of 10, and aces, that can be counted as either 1 or 11. A blackjack is a two-hand card consisting of a 10 card and an ace. The rules are such that the Casino has a small edge, but if a lot of small cards have been dealt - that is, the deck is rich in tens and aces, then the odds can shift in the favour of the better.
So: Mathematical (counting) skills is a necessary but far from sufficient condtion to succeed on any of the above activities.
And you have to have a system that gives you an edge and be true to that system: That is why discipline and psychological attitude is so important.
So what is the system that can give you an edge playing blackjack in the Casino?
Casiones usually use four-deck shoes.
The simplest method is to count tens, aces and other cards. But that is too simple. A better method is to give different cards a value and keep track of the sum.
One simple method:
- Give 2,3,4,5,6 a value of 1.
- Give 7,8,9 a value of 0.
- Give tens and aces a value of -1.
Then you have to register the cards that is dealt and keep track of the standardized count (the raw count divided by the number of decks remaining). The higher the standardized count, the better are your odds.
Example:
- Raw count = 10 and 2 decks remaining, the standardized count is 5.
- Raw count = 10 and 1/2 deck remaining, the standardized count is 20.
Your odds are best in the second case.
But there are more optimal counting methods like the Reverse Advance Point Count:
- Give 2,3,6 a value of 2.
- Give 4's a value of 3.
- Give 5's a value of 4.
- Give 7's a value of 1.
- Give 8's a value of 0.
- Give 9's a value of -2.
- Give ten cards a value of -3.
- Keep a separate track of aces.
But that is not the optimal count based on probability theory. There are more optimal methods, but there is always a tradeoff between accuracy and difficulty.
Conclusion:
If you ever go to the casino to use money, you have to have the right psychological attitude, the right discipline and
a good system that you stick to. Don't forget, if you go to use this method in Las Vegas, that is as far as I know a town where you get free drinks and may have lost your house before you leave, stay sober.
One of the best trading and intelligent betting advices I can give you, is that you should love small losses, but hate big ones. That is, leave before a small loss turns into a big one. And don't go to the casino to play blackjack if you can not count fast and accurate.