1. Yahoo integrates its purchases of Overture, Inktomi, AltaVista from its buying spree in 2003 in an attempt to become a true competitor to the ailing (Florida ravaged) Google. First attempts look something like AskJeeves with 15 paid results dominating the screen, both top and bottom and right side of the SERP's. Then they realize that people want more organic (free, non-sponsored) search results and drop back to the simple Google-like screen for search with Inktomi results. But then the Overture results go to a new 250x800 skyscraper box incorporating flash based blinking, spinning borders on the left side of the screen. Every remaining search engine not already owned by Yahoo will be purchased by Yahoo, including Google (see prediction #3).
2. MSN officially launches MSN search based on their own technology (mid to late 2004). After some AskJeeves-like attempts to show paid results for the majority of the SERP screen real estate, they realize nobody trusts this model and decide to go to a Google-like spare screen with only Overture results on the right and two paid results clearly labled at the top of the page. Since dropping Looksmart paid results in January, they announce they've been developing their own PPC engine and will spend 6 billion dollars in developing it over the next ten years, incorporating search into the Longhorn operating system - delayed again year-end to make security upgrades.
3. Google's IPO fizzles after the new non-relevant search results cause searchers to stop using them entirely. When they announce they've gone back to the pre-Florida algorithm, they gain back their die-hard fans. But it seems like too little, too late for most of the remaining public. Then suddenly open source search engine "Nutch" launches a massive campaign to become the Google replacement. Nutch.com is an overnight success and becomes the new worldwide favorite. Yahoo makes a buyout offer for Nutch and MSN announces they'll develop their own . . . oops, not open source - it'll incorporate .Net, be called .Netch and will be tied to Longhorn. MSN buys Google data centers and hardware at firesale prices after hiring the star staff right before a Google Bankruptcy is announced.
Mike Banks Valentine
http://SearchEngineOptimism.com
http://SEOptimism.com