Quote:
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Originally Posted by pemburung
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pemburung
Most importantly, and most in line with reality, is that is could easily be that everyone who uses
Google does so every month, the statistical period used by Comscore it seems. If this were the case, then Google's total user base would be 90 million (the truth probably lies somewhere in between 90M and 1080M). In this case, the crude figure, with no allowance for multiple use of the same address, or single users using multiple addresses, would be closer to $140 per year. So, we have a range of $16 to $140 per year per person.
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So, if every month the 90 million are the same as the year before, the annual income of:
"That would make each unique vistor worth $15.83 a year"
that is the revenue from 90 million people for an entire year, as they just repeat for the total clicks of 1080 million; if in fact the 90 million are truly unique, meaning an annual 1080 million unique visitors per year, then we have 12*15.83 = approx $184; I took a bit off as I figured in an overestimate based on multiple users of the same address; totally arbitrary I'll admit. Not allowing for this, the figure is the full $184 per year.
So that's the range; $15.83 to $184 depending on how many unique users there are in a year; 90 to 1080 million.
But as I also said, complicated by the fact that in the previous year(s) some of any current year's users originally popped up, or were carry-over from the year(s) before that. |
Your math is really messed up. More users means less money per user not more. Let's use your 1080M (1.08B) number. Replacing it in my equation above this is what you get...
$4.21B x 0.98 x 0.259 = $1.0686B
$1.0686B ÷ 9 ÷
1080M = $0.1099 a month per unique visitor.
That would make each unique vistor worth $1.32 a year. (approximately)
Second, to determine an average, you add the monthly numbers together and then divide by the number of months. You're skipping the divide part and just adding.
This is giving you a completely erroneous number because you're counting repeat users multiple times. If the 90M was an ongoing yearly count, the number would only change by the difference between
new visitors using google and exisiting visitors not using google. This difference was 21.9% between January and November.
If Google happened to have 575M unique visitors in November instead of 90M, using your math, you'd come up with 6.9B unique visitors in one year. More unique visitors then there are people on the planet.
Let's take the January and November numbers I used...
90.899M + 70.998M ÷ 2 = 80.949M unique visitors per year (average and approximate) based upon the 2 month snapshot.
Using this number in my equation you get...
$4.21B x 0.98 x 0.259 = $1.0686B
$1.0686B ÷ 9 ÷ 80.949M = $1.4668 a month per unique visitor.
That would make each unique vistor worth $17.60 a year. (approximately)
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pemburung
So it just depends on which figure is the best guide for any given plan (as Rumblepup said in his original post) - life of user or unique click in any given month. Short term or long term sale? Low-cost-of-supply unit (high mark-up soda, black hat scaper site) or high-cost-of-supply (Dburdon's phone; content-rich ever-changing hand-written 500 page website, our actual phonelines that we use; Ford's idea of giving away his Model T if he could get a contract with the owner on parts and and labor for repairs and maintenance.)
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This makes no sense at all when it comes to the discussion. None.
Dave